Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1795696dc399fd201cefec4f48ccf7be25423c720f9c0d54fa534a71c23c0189
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,151
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,058
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,151 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbf…0771backed Yes | 3c | 1,782$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.47 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed No | 53c | 404.29$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.89 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 54c | 301.31$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.13 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 258.94$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.27 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe21…2f9cbacked No | 63c | 200$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…2c98backed Yes | 16c | 190.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 66c | 167.37$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.8 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 45c | 154.04$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.57 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 71c | 118.75$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.87 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 47c | 109.9$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.11 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 25c | 108.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…24d7backed Yes | 14c | 102.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb29…0171backed Yes | 50c | 101.7$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.85 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…24cdbacked Yes | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69ac…0d2cbacked Yes | 51c | 98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.32per pick | 47cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 11c | 92.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 46c | 91.66$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.21 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 17c | 87.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc9…b10bbacked Yes | 49c | 81.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 49c | 77.77$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.11 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 75.71$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 47c | 73.82$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 63c | 69.62$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed Yes | 18c | 68.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 60c | 63$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 40c | 62.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 37c | 59.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked No | 50c | 57.28$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.58 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 76c | 57.22$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 63c | 55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 57c | 52.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 50c | 50.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 46c | 50.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d34…a917backed Yes | 48c | 49.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 47c | 49.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…06d2backed Yes | 47c | 49.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 33c | 49.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…a28dbacked Yes | 47c | 39.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6418…49edbacked No | 63c | 39.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 45c | 38.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x723a…6a11backed Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…5115backed Yes | 46c | 35.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 49c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7248…90d9backed No | 68c | 31.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 67c | 30.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ed…3242backed No | 48c | 30.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d22…245cbacked Yes | 46c | 29.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1c…bd99backed No | 53c | 28.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 53c | 27.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 45c | 27.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 51c | 27.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 47c | 26.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 51c | 26.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 23.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf79…7376backed Yes | 45c | 23.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 44c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x337d…6c88backed Yes | 48c | 20.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb19f…7f0fbacked Yes | 49c | 20.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa542…3f6cbacked Yes | 51c | 20.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d97…3835backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…bec8backed No | 52c | 19.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed No | 59c | 18.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 137 | 65.7%90 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed No | 66c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 180 | 33.9%61 W · 119 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on May 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.