Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x256f448b4f9e6eb940e8a5759154b3255ea1cd4a0873ef70f787fc4296d0a3ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,244
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,279
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,244 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked No | 10c | 602.07$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.02 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked No | 3c | 500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 38c | 422.31$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.34 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…35e3backed No | 14c | 371.29$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.72 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 24c | 318.87$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.35 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4371…0511backed Yes | 55c | 307.86$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.47 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…24cdbacked No | 72c | 260.74$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.64 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 29c | 259.42$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.63 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 45c | 250.66$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.95 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa498…727bbacked Yes | 25c | 197.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.11 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 24c | 188$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.03 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 33c | 176.63$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.03 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes | 40c | 170.35$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.35 | 142 | 22.5%32 W · 110 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a8b…808ebacked Yes | 80c | 170$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09e7…1fffbacked No | 14c | 162.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 94 | 39.4%37 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf58a…2a4fbacked No | 29c | 149.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.59 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 148.8$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.7 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 14c | 140.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 38c | 137.75$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.39 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a94…c0dcbacked Yes | 38c | 131.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 32c | 113.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.17 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e6…3b9bbacked Yes | 77c | 109.98$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.29 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 44c | 105.16$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.31 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 36c | 104.45$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.91 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb29…0171backed Yes | 30c | 102.47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.39 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 47c | 97.5$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.68 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa139…5bc2backed Yes | 78c | 92.8$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.51 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…cab6backed Yes | 51c | 81.63$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 28c | 81.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 15c | 80.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 20c | 76.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 20c | 75.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 58c | 63.75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.87 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dd…a04ebacked Yes | 40c | 63.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 49c | 60.22$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.88 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 70c | 58.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.66 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…0ce8backed Yes | 53c | 56.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.94 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 53c | 55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0906…c4c6backed Yes | 36c | 54.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +174.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed Yes | 31c | 54.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.25 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed Yes | 39c | 50.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.95 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 36c | 50.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.46 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…06d2backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x723e…083ebacked No | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -6.3wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe1de…aadfbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +7.8wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82fd…c9a8backed Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 41c | 49.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked No | 52c | 48.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 42c | 48.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9301backed Yes | 80c | 46.25$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ac…6153backed Yes | 44c | 45.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 34c | 44.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.94 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5da…27b7backed No | 25c | 43.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 25c | 43.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.42 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee16…7f40backed No | 58c | 41.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x436b…1fd6backed Yes | 31c | 39.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7f…7428backed Yes | 33c | 39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6962…0629backed Yes | 36c | 38.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.21 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 76c | 38.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5c70…edf3backed Yes | 32c | 37.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 67c | 36.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…a28dbacked Yes | 38c | 36.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…5115backed Yes | 33c | 35.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 40c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x529c…64b6backed Yes | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc255…b95cbacked No | 35c | 33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…0490backed Yes | 50c | 32.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked Yes | 41c | 31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 69c | 30.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe740…fae6backed Yes | 65c | 29.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…aa1ebacked No | 69c | 29.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bd…ccfcbacked Yes | 41c | 26.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 62c | 24.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 57c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 57c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 52c | 21.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 71c | 21.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 66c | 20.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabee…ab7dbacked No | 67c | 17.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c28…1041backed Yes | 65c | 16.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x050e…9ac6backed Yes | 70c | 16.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x634c…6f0abacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on May 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.