NHL · resolved market
Senators vs. Islanders: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17d15019f2f8dd3b40ea1b7e7811341a6a29caddd9ddb8db451bf5b55da01280
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,482
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,543
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,482 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 46c | 5,000$2,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,300 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Under | 54c | 3,156$1,704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,451.59 | 224 | 43.8%98 W · 126 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 54c | 1,681$907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$773.03 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fb…8feebacked Over | 45c | 1,030$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.2 | 190 | 50.5%96 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x448d…3adebacked Under | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 54c | 700$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2e…caf6backed Over | 44c | 518.39$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.09 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 56c | 518.04$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.04 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Under | 56c | 300$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +6.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Over | 44c | 300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -13.1wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xea7a…39b7backed Under | 56c | 285$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5db9…1019backed Over | 45c | 275$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Over | 46c | 158.69$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 191 | 41.9%80 W · 111 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f47…6397backed Under | 56c | 149.79$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.91 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 44c | 149.79$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.91 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Under | 48c | 144$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.88 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 52c | 144$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.88 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c77…55a4backed Over | 44c | 121$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.24 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x432f…0b4cbacked Under | 57c | 120.82$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.02 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +4.1wins | +0.38per pick | 53cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 44c | 110.2$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.49 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x549d…35b9backed Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 75c | 86.19$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd8…f306backed Over | 43c | 84.1$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.16 | 316 | 54.7%173 W · 143 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 54c | 71$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c9…a454backed Over | 44c | 67.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x738e…dc37backed Over | 46c | 65.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 39c | 61.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Over | 45c | 57.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 45c | 51.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 189 | 41.8%79 W · 110 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed Over | 47c | 46.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 128 | 50%64 W · 64 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe56f…bdaabacked Over | 44c | 45.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…4374backed Under | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 54c | 27.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 84 | 69%58 W · 26 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 46c | 27.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 318 | 28.3%90 W · 228 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ef…7c14backed Over | 44c | 22.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8053…e30abacked Under | 56c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee58…ec05backed Under | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Senators vs. Islanders: O/U 6.5this page
- Senators vs. IslandersSenators won
- Senators vs. Islanders: O/U 3.5Under won
- Senators vs. Islanders: O/U 4.5Under won
- Senators vs. Islanders: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Senators (-1.5)Senators won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.