NHL · resolved market
Senators vs. Islanders: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7dcc64ea951259871d1c1b10eecca519794c16152aa4989839c5a8dd65fb9ae0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,757
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,646
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,757 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 57c | 8,668$4,941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,940.93 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 43c | 6,065$2,603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,461.48 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 43c | 2,945$1,266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,678.58 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Over | 57c | 650$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.5 | 384 | 45.8%176 W · 208 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24bc…1b77backed Over | 58c | 518.16$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 122 | 58.2%71 W · 51 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 43c | 400$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 43c | 393$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.01 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 36c | 346$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.24 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e6…9e72backed Over | 57c | 312.28$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Under | 54c | 212$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.52 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 43c | 164$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.48 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 44c | 147$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.32 | 276 | 59.4%164 W · 112 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 43c | 136.68$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.9 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8027…cf81backed Under | 45c | 133.34$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.34 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Under | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Under | 46c | 106.39$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.59 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Over | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -13.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 48c | 96.33$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.44 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 57c | 90$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 820 | 43%353 W · 467 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff89…9c06backed Over | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Over | 32c | 67.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Over | 57c | 64.04$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 191 | 41.9%80 W · 111 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4d…4c76backed Under | 44c | 58.86$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.96 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44e4…f624backed Over | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 279 | 57.7%161 W · 118 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Under | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 43c | 38.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 456 | 51.5%235 W · 221 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 54c | 34.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…4dd5backed Over | 51c | 30.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -8.5wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e9…28f3backed Under | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9945…bfa6backed Over | 50c | 29.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…456bbacked Under | 44c | 27.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb20…f42bbacked Over | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -4.1wins | -0.27per pick | 54cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9e70…14babacked Over | 54c | 24.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3c…cce5backed Under | 75c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…f485backed Under | 75c | 20.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Over | 57c | 18.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Senators vs. Islanders: O/U 5.5this page
- Senators vs. IslandersSenators won
- Senators vs. Islanders: O/U 3.5Under won
- Senators vs. Islanders: O/U 4.5Under won
- Senators vs. Islanders: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Senators (-1.5)Senators won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.