NHL · resolved market
Spread: Senators (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa83a8f4fd1968ba75547d149d83991545ec01308b5eff07d971cecada8cc6621
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Senatorsof Senators, Islanders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,934
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,352
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,934 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb9fb…8feebacked Senators | 34c | 3,282$1,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,181.16 | 190 | 50.5%96 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20e5…d3bcbacked Islanders | 66c | 1,433$946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$946.48 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x164f…deb3backed Islanders | 69c | 1,246$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.77 | 254 | 46.5%118 W · 136 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked Islanders | 67c | 955.2$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.98 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Senators | 31c | 883.64$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.71 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e2…8a9bbacked Islanders | 69c | 856.93$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.73 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Islanders | 66c | 649.58$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.19 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Islanders | 66c | 500$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 165 | 46.7%77 W · 88 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x441d…544dbacked Islanders | 58c | 471.67$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.62 | 94 | 31.9%30 W · 64 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Islanders | 66c | 470.59$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.59 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2d…18c6backed Senators | 34c | 451.95$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.29 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Islanders | 58c | 370.73$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.14 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea7f…85d5backed Senators | 31c | 231.92$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Senators | 52c | 203.98$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.39 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ddd…f58dbacked Senators | 32c | 201$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Senators | 32c | 173.81$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.28 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Islanders | 68c | 172.73$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.71 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae09…60a2backed Islanders | 68c | 150.8$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Senators | 32c | 123.23$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.8 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…eeb8backed Islanders | 68c | 112.79$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.7 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Islanders | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 202 | 45%91 W · 111 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…abe9backed Senators | 77c | 90.83$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x239d…daebbacked Islanders | 48c | 90.38$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.16 | 91 | 56%51 W · 40 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Islanders | 68c | 73.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed Islanders | 20c | 64.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…6bd3backed Senators | 31c | 61.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.67 | 540 | 49.4%267 W · 273 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Islanders | 69c | 59.41$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 311 | 48.2%150 W · 161 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Islanders | 68c | 58.06$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 230 | 63%145 W · 85 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x448d…3adebacked Islanders | 69c | 56.4$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed Senators | 31c | 54.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.3 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Islanders | 69c | 49.78$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.35 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Islanders | 42c | 47.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a8…f031backed Islanders | 68c | 43.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…e8c8backed Islanders | 69c | 42.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 169 | 59.8%101 W · 68 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Senators | 76c | 37.46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Senators | 41c | 36.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Islanders | 69c | 29.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc57f…cfffbacked Senators | 74c | 29.53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.27per pick | 64cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Senators | 50c | 29.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Islanders | 49c | 26.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | +6.9wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Islanders | 52c | 23.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Islanders | 69c | 19.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Islanders | 68c | 18.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 235 | 59.1%139 W · 96 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Islanders | 68c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f97…4059backed Islanders | 68c | 16.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Senators (-1.5)this page
- Senators vs. IslandersSenators won
- Senators vs. Islanders: O/U 3.5Under won
- Senators vs. Islanders: O/U 4.5Under won
- Senators vs. Islanders: O/U 5.5Under won
- Senators vs. Islanders: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.