Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on August 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17f310b1d8e3461d24e5331177ead73e30284d5a0dd22c4c8cba65ea302628b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,493
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,712
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,493 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8752…31b6backed No | 1c | 901.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 33c | 816.24$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.31 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 638.26$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.46 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked No | 68c | 499.99$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.99 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 34c | 432.97$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.83 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 339.23$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.25 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a0…8595backed Yes | 32c | 293.53$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.6 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 269.68$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.29 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 34c | 220.81$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.81 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 66c | 210$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.6 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 71c | 157.06$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.51 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 53c | 136.6$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 34c | 127.04$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.27 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 34c | 119.33$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.52 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 78c | 112.75$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 27c | 112$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.66 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 32c | 111.12$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.79 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 32c | 101.01$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.43 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.62 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 66c | 98.83$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.23 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 66c | 95$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.9 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 68c | 91.51$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.21 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 87$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.1 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb93e…646cbacked Yes | 32c | 84.71$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 33c | 84.42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.43 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 70c | 78$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.52 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…9207backed No | 66c | 71.02$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.88 | 110 | 27.3%30 W · 80 L | -22.3wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 68c | 70.23$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.95 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x987f…b37dbacked Yes | 33c | 70$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.1 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 68c | 67.59$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.95 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 57.15$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 71c | 53.87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 67c | 52.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 68c | 50.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 21c | 49.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 69c | 47.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…fccdbacked Yes | 75c | 47.81$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 32c | 46.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.83 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f72…0b9bbacked Yes | 33c | 44.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.84 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 52c | 44.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 33c | 44.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.73 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 67c | 40.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 62c | 37.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 33c | 37.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked No | 29c | 36.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 46c | 35.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 31c | 34.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 31.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x334d…7acbbacked Yes | 73c | 31.64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 67cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 69c | 30.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 68c | 29.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed No | 62c | 27.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 115 | 25.2%29 W · 86 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…7004backed Yes | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 67c | 24.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…1c6ebacked Yes | 67c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd6…5ab1backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 75cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…fbc9backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 63c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on August 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 37°C or higher on August 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.