Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on May 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x183a2e14b524af73434f316d21c9bc9005a606cfb05a921faeb010091103e2a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,394
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,594
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,394 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 5c | 699.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.24 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 69c | 315.5$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.53 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 7c | 267.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.87 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 7c | 231.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.3 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 73c | 216.04$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.14 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 58c | 209.99$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.52 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 22c | 187.89$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.83 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 6c | 179.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 20c | 166.23$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…bee4backed Yes | 59c | 156.14$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.58 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked No | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 157 | 22.9%36 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ff…5c2abacked No | 43c | 146.33$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.92 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 38c | 139.74$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.29 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 43c | 138.9$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.3 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 24c | 136.13$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.65 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 130.93$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 20c | 129.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 36c | 126.03$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.23 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 51c | 120$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.3 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c96…42efbacked Yes | 80c | 119.95$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 31 | 83.9%26 W · 5 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 70cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 36c | 109.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 76c | 109.53$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 17c | 105.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf279…202cbacked No | 43c | 102.5$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.15 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x851d…a743backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 51c | 92$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.19 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 89.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 69c | 85.8$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.17 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 80c | 79$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 62c | 76.64$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.88 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 21c | 75.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed No | 20c | 74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 41c | 73.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed No | 16c | 69.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 61c | 66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.66 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 57c | 61.36$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.38 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2109…58b3backed No | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked No | 21c | 57.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 79c | 52.7$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 53c | 52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 48c | 50.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 71c | 45.83$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 75c | 44.39$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 74c | 40.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd418…6d2ebacked No | 79c | 37.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…1dd9backed Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x372f…182abacked Yes | 78c | 34.88$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 47c | 34.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0e…8337backed Yes | 30c | 33.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed No | 52c | 32.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…b143backed Yes | 57c | 25.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed Yes | 73c | 23.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 68c | 22.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…abfbbacked Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 62c | 18.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on May 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on May 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.