College Football · resolved market
Will Washington beat Michigan?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1849423e25bc7d7a811b86110e086d38808e2e8b5b1e49e6a6ef64491de544dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washingtonof Washington, Michigan
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,810
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,594
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,810 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe0f3…d82cbacked Washington | 54c | 4,200$2,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,927.48 | 48 | 68.8%33 W · 15 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Michigan | 47c | 2,300$1,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,081 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x962c…f969backed Washington | 53c | 2,300$1,219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,081 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Michigan | 44c | 2,047$899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$898.58 | 231 | 45.5%105 W · 126 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Washington | 56c | 1,966$1,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$857.43 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2376…30f5backed Michigan | 24c | 1,130$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…63e5backed Michigan | 50c | 1,048$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.88 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Washington | 79c | 1,022$806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.48 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe41a…a42dbacked Michigan | 45c | 701.82$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.82 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Washington | 64c | 486.74$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.14 | 170 | 48.2%82 W · 88 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Michigan | 15c | 404.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.61 | 242 | 29.3%71 W · 171 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89f2…0659backed Michigan | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3b…e948backed Michigan | 50c | 299.99$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.33 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb956…c475backed Michigan | 47c | 275.03$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -4.1wins | -0.34per pick | 43cpaid | -83%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbd03…c6e0backed Michigan | 51c | 250$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…d38ebacked Michigan | 48c | 210$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa03b…c3f1backed Michigan | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…e186backed Michigan | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c5…e38abacked Michigan | 34c | 195$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.3 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2214…14dabacked Washington | 52c | 193$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42e…edbdbacked Michigan | 47c | 148.06$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.59 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef3…3d1bbacked Michigan | 64c | 147.42$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.82 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 47cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb1…d3e3backed Washington | 50c | 138.87$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.87 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +8.2wins | +0.14per pick | 35cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbd86…36b3backed Washington | 49c | 138.71$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.74 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbea6…aed7backed Michigan | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67a5…b94fbacked Michigan | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a57…0701backed Michigan | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf339…e010backed Michigan | 48c | 101$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.87 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62d1…0220backed Michigan | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a8…a04bbacked Michigan | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…5679backed Michigan | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccac…ab7dbacked Washington | 52c | 65.54$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.46 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x249e…c29abacked Washington | 43c | 55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…efb8backed Michigan | 33c | 45.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…7b6ebacked Washington | 79c | 45.75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Michigan | 39c | 44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb4…2794backed Washington | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacbd…3c7abacked Michigan | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c0…c88cbacked Washington | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.23per pick | 59cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1eb…2f83backed Washington | 54c | 20.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Washington beat Michigan?this page
- Will Washington and Michigan combine for 42 or more points?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.