MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1884a5104270ababbca1896a89d71de69691d4fee1b322d3f2f94dfb86a985b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,589
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,729
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,589 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 60c | 11,843$7,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,065.57 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Under | 40c | 7,817$3,127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,690.39 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd60…396cbacked Under | 41c | 3,954$1,621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,332.62 | 195 | 46.2%90 W · 105 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 54c | 2,262$1,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,224.98 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Over | 58c | 2,200$1,276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,276 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 40c | 1,400$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 44c | 1,069$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.52 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 42c | 840$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.4 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 21c | 824.69$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.75 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 41c | 799.99$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.99 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Under | 80c | 625.63$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.63 | 321 | 66.4%213 W · 108 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6b…1a3ebacked Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 50c | 489.1$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.18 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Over | 57c | 420$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.4 | 191 | 43.5%83 W · 108 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 295.45$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.4 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Under | 42c | 198.67$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.23 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 51c | 177.8$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.23 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 60c | 173.5$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.1 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Over | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 42c | 154.7$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.98 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b0…b4d1backed Over | 60c | 150$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 40c | 140$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 46c | 119.03$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.28 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 54c | 108.47$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.31 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 21c | 88.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 50c | 68.26$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 42c | 52.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.39 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…203abacked Over | 58c | 49.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 35c | 41.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f6…f7e6backed Over | 58c | 40.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 45c | 38.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Over | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b2…6a58backed Over | 60c | 26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 127 | 53.5%68 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe840…733cbacked Over | 59c | 24.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -13.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf47f…15adbacked Under | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e99…2229backed Under | 67c | 20.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 60c | 20.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 63c | 18.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati RedsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.