MLB · resolved market
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84b61ae423cc74ce752ada8f0dc8d6d12d5e5cf71b750ad6ab1e3e5e70b56358
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnati Redsof Arizona Diamondbacks, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,489
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,532
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,489 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 57c | 15,000$8,476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,475.84 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 52c | 10,345$5,419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,925.91 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Cincinnati Reds | 53c | 6,118$3,243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,875.68 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 47c | 6,112$2,869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,869.28 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 29c | 2,569$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.84 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cincinnati Reds | 50c | 2,508$1,247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,260.58 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Cincinnati Reds | 44c | 1,846$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,035.92 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Cincinnati Reds | 43c | 1,450$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$824.68 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Cincinnati Reds | 43c | 1,144$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 46c | 801.57$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.85 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Cincinnati Reds | 44c | 796.26$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.9 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 36c | 608.32$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.56 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 45c | 589.57$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.3 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 37c | 540.54$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 530.83$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.23 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 500$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 483.89$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 47c | 319.15$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Cincinnati Reds | 45c | 264.12$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.96 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 34c | 224.35$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.35 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Cincinnati Reds | 53c | 190$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.3 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Cincinnati Reds | 43c | 185.95$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.99 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6676…22f3backed Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 529 | 47.4%251 W · 278 L | -24.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 148.15$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.15 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Cincinnati Reds | 47c | 116.27$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.62 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Cincinnati Reds | 53c | 112.84$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.03 | 491 | 58.9%289 W · 202 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 112$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.28 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f3…293cbacked Cincinnati Reds | 52c | 111.95$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.39 | 195 | 50.8%99 W · 96 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 40c | 104.51$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 47c | 103$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.41 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 102.32$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.07 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 102$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.24 | 507 | 48.7%247 W · 260 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x886f…aa8fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Cincinnati Reds | 43c | 86$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.02 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 40c | 82.73$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 44c | 50.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 50.02$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.01 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 45.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 41.62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Cincinnati Reds | 76c | 39.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 52c | 35.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5965…d26dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 47c | 35.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda67…0b91backed Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 33.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +6.5wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9632…a379backed Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 33.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Cincinnati Reds | 65c | 32.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 53c | 31.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 43c | 29.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a0c…14cebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 45c | 28.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 145 | 55.9%81 W · 64 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 55c | 28.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 26.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c97…5c66backed Cincinnati Reds | 65c | 24.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -5.8wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 64c | 24.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dfb…f1b7backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 22.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 319 | 63%201 W · 118 L | +27.5wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 47c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf874…def4backed Cincinnati Reds | 71c | 15.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 296 | 56.1%166 W · 130 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5e…f0c5backed Cincinnati Reds | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 94 | 73.4%69 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati RedsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.