MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca7362e0588a0468f891b44cc9b89a3f90315f8213ec88823547570c657e873f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $234,112
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $233,975
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $234,112 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 51c | 193,785$98,830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94,954.56 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Over | 49c | 72,646$35,596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,596.4 | 358 | 54.5%195 W · 163 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Over | 49c | 40,399$19,796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,795.51 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 49c | 36,975$18,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,139.49 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 49c | 21,508$10,533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,532.89 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Under | 50c | 17,664$8,832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,832.22 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 49c | 16,449$8,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,060.19 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 49c | 8,091$3,997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,996.75 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 49c | 6,291$3,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,082.73 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 50c | 4,715$2,357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,357.26 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 50c | 4,525$2,262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,262.45 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97fd…3313backed Over | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,960 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 50c | 3,849$1,925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,924.5 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 53c | 2,869$1,526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,342.99 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Over | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 707 | 44.7%316 W · 391 L | -22.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 50c | 1,914$957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$957.23 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 52c | 1,673$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$803.04 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 49c | 1,107$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.43 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 35c | 766.72$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.45 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 52c | 736$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 43c | 713.99$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.52 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 52c | 713.96$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.7 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 60c | 679.94$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 47c | 666.67$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.33 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 40c | 587.82$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.45 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x041b…d3ebbacked Over | 51c | 513.57$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Under | 51c | 424$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.76 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 49c | 399$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.51 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb767…d848backed Under | 51c | 392$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.08 | 116 | 62.9%73 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 54c | 345.49$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.31 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b1…e904backed Over | 49c | 299.98$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.99 | 693 | 51.9%360 W · 333 L | +26.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 49c | 272$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.28 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 49c | 252$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.75 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 47c | 244.95$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 11c | 224.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Under | 51c | 205.12$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.51 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 53c | 180.17$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.52 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 60c | 171.47$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.37 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Over | 50c | 159.92$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.96 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21a6…7442backed Over | 50c | 100.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.38 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 56c | 99.98$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.99 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe997…f92ebacked Over | 50c | 98.03$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.02 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 54c | 98.03$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.43 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 30c | 97.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Under | 61c | 87.48$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 41c | 80.28$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…3813backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 179 | 53.1%95 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x683b…c863backed Over | 50c | 47.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86ee…511fbacked Under | 51c | 46.45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 243 | 50.6%123 W · 120 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 52c | 42.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Over | 49c | 40.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 274 | 54.4%149 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 47c | 39.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 60c | 31.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f2…a6fabacked Over | 50c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…4a48backed Over | 50c | 30.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 130 | 56.2%73 W · 57 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6123…8b33backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 268 | 53.7%144 W · 124 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…6d07backed Under | 55c | 27.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 516 | 56.6%292 W · 224 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71d1…a991backed Under | 45c | 26.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…b576backed Over | 50c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 275 | 57.1%157 W · 118 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Under | 60c | 23.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…f631backed Under | 51c | 20.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 50c | 20.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x661a…ddc7backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf88b…0ed2backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0098…71e0backed Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 152 | 52%79 W · 73 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf47f…15adbacked Under | 64c | 18.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati RedsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.