NBA · resolved market
Bulls vs. Grizzlies
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1890d51027b095ad0a2ebea6b8764ff77ddd032a1838b68fdc54514d7714edd6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bullsof Bulls, Grizzlies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,548
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,948
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,548 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Bulls | 68c | 3,928$2,690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,238.5 | 701 | 47.8%335 W · 366 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked Grizzlies | 69c | 3,146$2,174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,173.61 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Grizzlies | 69c | 1,907$1,323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,323.24 | 476 | 56.5%269 W · 207 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Bulls | 42c | 1,867$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,074.81 | 656 | 42.5%279 W · 377 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Grizzlies | 35c | 1,543$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.88 | 615 | 32.2%198 W · 417 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc0…53ddbacked Bulls | 32c | 1,041$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.47 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +13.2wins | +0.24per pick | 33cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Bulls | 31c | 1,000$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690 | 1,290 | 44%567 W · 723 L | +35.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x997b…801ebacked Bulls | 31c | 915.65$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.25 | 461 | 31%143 W · 318 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b4…e0febacked Bulls | 31c | 806.45$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.45 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13a6…ee95backed Grizzlies | 4c | 703.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcef8…1f8dbacked Grizzlies | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 14%8 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda67…b950backed Grizzlies | 22c | 399.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba2…18a5backed Bulls | 31c | 361.96$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.99 | 91 | 30.8%28 W · 63 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked Grizzlies | 70c | 319.95$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.57 | 265 | 47.9%127 W · 138 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb20…a151backed Grizzlies | 69c | 304.53$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.13 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +7.0wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed Grizzlies | 70c | 210$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 191 | 37.7%72 W · 119 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…4583backed Bulls | 29c | 182.11$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.3 | 138 | 57.2%79 W · 59 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9857…be38backed Bulls | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.29 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Bulls | 29c | 149.98$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.98 | 1,166 | 54.4%634 W · 532 L | +19.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d5…e85ebacked Grizzlies | 72c | 149.89$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.85 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10c9…c109backed Bulls | 31c | 149.45$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.45 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fc…8b32backed Bulls | 30c | 141.29$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…eec9backed Grizzlies | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 51 | 66.7%34 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe680…8788backed Bulls | 29c | 79.93$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.75 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.23per pick | 36cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Bulls | 18c | 75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Bulls | 18c | 59.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.72 | 424 | 34.4%146 W · 278 L | -19.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x860b…e6a3backed Grizzlies | 70c | 55$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 60cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0205…2555backed Bulls | 30c | 54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +139.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x953b…f969backed Grizzlies | 70c | 52.65$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…bce2backed Bulls | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 774 | 37.5%290 W · 484 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1872…1962backed Grizzlies | 70c | 48.57$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5138…1d4dbacked Bulls | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 96 | 45.8%44 W · 52 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…3b7abacked Grizzlies | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaac…cef8backed Grizzlies | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…dd8ebacked Bulls | 29c | 38.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.42 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8744…867bbacked Bulls | 29c | 35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f18…9536backed Grizzlies | 71c | 32.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x484c…017ebacked Grizzlies | 72c | 27.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe719…df47backed Grizzlies | 72c | 24.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Grizzlies | 69c | 21.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 84 | 36.9%31 W · 53 L | -10.5wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe022…dda9backed Grizzlies | 71c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb748…3b0cbacked Grizzlies | 71c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f76…c09abacked Grizzlies | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x610d…188bbacked Grizzlies | 72c | 13.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 186 | 28%52 W · 134 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.