CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: maybe vs Arch (BO3) - CCT Europe Contenders #6 Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18a3d7765445c3a550833a6405c73a1e42f45c5c05a684d7a9242465457a3a1f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- maybeof maybe, Arch
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,854
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,141
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,854 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc0f1…8680backed maybe | 45c | 3,017$1,362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,655.03 | 2,527 | 43.1%1,088 W · 1,439 L | +42.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7460…de6ebacked Arch | 44c | 2,800$1,232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,232 | 445 | 51.2%228 W · 217 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3db4…d69bbacked Arch | 55c | 2,500$1,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,374.98 | 753 | 56.8%428 W · 325 L | +48.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed maybe | 56c | 2,232$1,244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$988.01 | 5,341 | 31.3%1,674 W · 3,667 L | -390.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x882a…cde2backed Arch | 55c | 665.5$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.71 | 168 | 50.6%85 W · 83 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ac…e2a8backed maybe | 45c | 373.33$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.33 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | +8.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4bb…22a9backed Arch | 54c | 367.06$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.36 | 276 | 47.1%130 W · 146 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ade…fb15backed maybe | 45c | 362.57$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.41 | 197 | 48.7%96 W · 101 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed maybe | 43c | 347.97$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.19 | 896 | 30.7%275 W · 621 L | -64.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb55b…c5b4backed Arch | 58c | 343.97$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.5 | 351 | 53.8%189 W · 162 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Arch | 54c | 329.5$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.49 | 3,544 | 29.3%1,037 W · 2,507 L | -289.1wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed maybe | 38c | 240.6$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.47 | 6,501 | 42.9%2,791 W · 3,710 L | -79.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb03…1a23backed maybe | 44c | 227.55$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +166%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed maybe | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 2,554 | 41.3%1,054 W · 1,500 L | -116.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e85…788bbacked maybe | 34c | 193.03$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.79 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked maybe | 44c | 184.21$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.32 | 5,034 | 37.2%1,874 W · 3,160 L | -260.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…afaebacked maybe | 45c | 156.06$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.83 | 116 | 44.8%52 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef9…4db4backed Arch | 26c | 140.69$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Arch | 59c | 115$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.77 | 321 | 39.9%128 W · 193 L | -13.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked maybe | 44c | 107.95$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.06 | 7,990 | 50.4%4,029 W · 3,961 L | +180.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Arch | 37c | 105.88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 4,754 | 43.6%2,071 W · 2,683 L | -85.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe564…221abacked maybe | 45c | 102.44$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.44 | 1,087 | 31.9%347 W · 740 L | -7.0wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…e91abacked maybe | 44c | 101.55$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.57 | 186 | 47.3%88 W · 98 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x010a…7084backed maybe | 42c | 100.24$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.19 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc8…4f5bbacked Arch | 57c | 95$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.52 | 236 | 44.9%106 W · 130 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed maybe | 41c | 93.42$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.57 | 2,365 | 45.4%1,074 W · 1,291 L | -58.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked maybe | 46c | 90$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.29 | 130 | 60.8%79 W · 51 L | +8.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…f3c8backed Arch | 54c | 89.51$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.34 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked maybe | 46c | 84.37$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.47 | 746 | 53.5%399 W · 347 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed maybe | 45c | 82.04$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.34 | 890 | 46.1%410 W · 480 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a3…5b70backed maybe | 45c | 81.44$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.92 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked maybe | 68c | 72.2$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.29 | 110 | 40.9%45 W · 65 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked maybe | 67c | 60.9$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 2,798 | 37.6%1,051 W · 1,747 L | -138.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed maybe | 48c | 55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.39 | 457 | 54.5%249 W · 208 L | +18.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…8689backed maybe | 48c | 55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 212 | 51.9%110 W · 102 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc593…ea8cbacked maybe | 48c | 55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 271 | 56.8%154 W · 117 L | +13.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Arch | 55c | 47.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 2,645 | 51.9%1,372 W · 1,273 L | +21.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea37…94f3backed Arch | 53c | 45.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 329 | 51.7%170 W · 159 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed maybe | 46c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 514 | 46.9%241 W · 273 L | -22.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed maybe | 42c | 42.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 1,146 | 43.5%499 W · 647 L | -17.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x113f…ae4dbacked maybe | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9d…de16backed Arch | 68c | 36.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked maybe | 45c | 26.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 1,397 | 52.4%732 W · 665 L | +30.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Arch | 67c | 24.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 664 | 36.6%243 W · 421 L | -35.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e5…c8d1backed maybe | 47c | 23.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96db…499fbacked Arch | 51c | 22.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefbc…b344backed maybe | 70c | 21.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 405 | 42%170 W · 235 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5904…8099backed Arch | 70c | 14.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: maybe vs Arch (BO3) - CCT Europe Contenders #6 Playoffsthis page
- Counter-Strike: maybe vs Arch - Map 2 Winnermaybe won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.