Champions League · resolved market
Will Atletico Madrid beat RB Leipzig?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18ad373cd3bb293289c9991c63f761ff3a225696c53f84de6601be99a0809f65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,743
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,564
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,743 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f2b…f448backed No | 2c | 2,253$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No | 43c | 1,314$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.51 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 57c | 1,026$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.32 | 138 | 47.1%65 W · 73 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2807…97febacked Yes | 56c | 886.11$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.11 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd13…e6f1backed No | 4c | 875$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 4cpaid | +304%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…039abacked No | 45c | 700$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked No | 43c | 668.05$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.26 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Yes | 55c | 663.23$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.45 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +8.2wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1a20…101cbacked No | 4c | 625$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c0…3f84backed No | 44c | 620.98$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.23 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked No | 43c | 517.36$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.47 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…63e5backed Yes | 56c | 500$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff25…1738backed Yes | 61c | 391$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.49 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe227…55d8backed Yes | 56c | 382.12$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.13 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Yes | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.88 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -6.2wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -25%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 43c | 304.15$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.78 | 170 | 48.2%82 W · 88 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadae…061ebacked No | 47c | 277.76$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked No | 44c | 269.99$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.8 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Yes | 55c | 250$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde70…0039backed No | 46c | 219.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 43c | 177.75$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.65 | 291 | 38.1%111 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49d8…3083backed Yes | 55c | 137.29$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…d68fbacked Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cc…4952backed Yes | 55c | 99.98$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.99 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -29%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x538a…bd78backed Yes | 42c | 99.98$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.19 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7777…f2bbbacked Yes | 57c | 96.49$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.49 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6324…95b9backed Yes | 57c | 93.54$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.22 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x007a…7f5ebacked Yes | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc5…38d9backed No | 44c | 58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 43c | 55.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Yes | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 92 | 52.2%48 W · 44 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1956…1352backed Yes | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…d829backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa533…acacbacked Yes | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8cd…1402backed Yes | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea0b…1f5bbacked Yes | 57c | 43.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27df…b9cfbacked Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1673…e40dbacked Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -54%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea4…e097backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c04…1844backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b50…87fbbacked Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6817…2404backed Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fed…c1b2backed Yes | 56c | 34.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff4a…c832backed Yes | 57c | 33.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01d3…82c0backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdec…17a2backed Yes | 57c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x769d…7670backed No | 45c | 26.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6e…d36abacked Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…7235backed Yes | 56c | 19.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Atletico Madrid beat RB Leipzig?this page
- Will RB Leipzig beat Atletico Madrid?No won
- Will the match between Atletico Madrid vs. RB Leipzig end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.