NBA · resolved market
Spurs vs. Rockets: O/U 218.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18b2a94b15b62eb54316234755a9470fc4d72582dbddabccf6ac9f20a7b396b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,293
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,893
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,293 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa177…6e84backed Under | 48c | 5,219$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,718.62 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 52c | 3,298$1,715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,715.19 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 47c | 2,572$1,209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,363.24 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Over | 4c | 2,500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 53c | 2,200$1,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,166.08 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Under | 8c | 1,392$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,283.02 | 144 | 38.9%56 W · 88 L | +32.5wins | +0.23per pick | 16cpaid | +228.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 27c | 1,295$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940.74 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Under | 21c | 787.57$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.49 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Over | 53c | 471$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.63 | 260 | 34.6%90 W · 170 L | -20.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0f…bbfebacked Over | 24c | 307.14$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.79 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 35c | 190.08$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.15 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde2e…6875backed Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1033…d851backed Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 274 | 43.1%118 W · 156 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01d7…5fd2backed Over | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2928…901ebacked Over | 55c | 132.73$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 46c | 130.42$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.43 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 46c | 121.97$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.86 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…8848backed Over | 54c | 110$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 722 | 50.6%365 W · 357 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -8.0wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 54c | 97.71$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.76 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 44c | 97.14$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…16cfbacked Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 151 | 61.6%93 W · 58 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6c…fe22backed Over | 56c | 87.14$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27da…4781backed Over | 55c | 81.82$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb43e…a441backed Over | 55c | 81.82$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df3…ff6cbacked Over | 55c | 81.82$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17ea…9406backed Over | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 31c | 52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.96 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b41…01c7backed Under | 49c | 51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 538 | 39.4%212 W · 326 L | -26.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed8f…69d4backed Over | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -60%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb52…f6e4backed Over | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a2…af31backed Over | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd097…40eabacked Over | 55c | 43.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23ed…d70ebacked Over | 55c | 38.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x786f…4858backed Over | 55c | 34.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc503…b82cbacked Over | 69c | 31.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea20…18fabacked Over | 56c | 30.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4e…490abacked Over | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f51…3f2fbacked Over | 77c | 23.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Over | 54c | 20.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 432 | 44%190 W · 242 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spurs vs. Rockets: O/U 218.5this page
- Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 18.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- Jabari Smith Jr.: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Kevin Durant: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Kevin Durant: Points O/U 25.5No won
- Reed Sheppard: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Spread: Rockets (-2.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Rockets (-3.5)Spurs won
- Spurs vs. RocketsSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Rockets: O/U 219.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Rockets: O/U 220.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Rockets: O/U 221.5Under won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 22.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.