NBA · resolved market
Spread: Rockets (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x054219c742db1c12e71f45ab7cf63a94991e223dbdbd7d1870fc7ee7c01cbdf5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spursof Rockets, Spurs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,162
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,253
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,162 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Spurs | 53c | 7,242$3,865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,376.28 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Rockets | 48c | 7,084$3,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,400.32 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91fd…1cdebacked Spurs | 52c | 6,753$3,512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,241.43 | 773 | 48.5%375 W · 398 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbde3…4a49backed Rockets | 47c | 4,782$2,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,247.54 | 272 | 51.1%139 W · 133 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc37…2f65backed Rockets | 47c | 2,111$992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$992 | 416 | 49.8%207 W · 209 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Rockets | 46c | 2,020$938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$938.09 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Rockets | 46c | 1,625$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.91 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Rockets | 49c | 1,334$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.77 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca5…73bcbacked Spurs | 54c | 1,299$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.47 | 404 | 51.5%208 W · 196 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f19…ec51backed Spurs | 55c | 933$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.54 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48de…95babacked Rockets | 65c | 521.23$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.24 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fca…9d33backed Rockets | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Spurs | 52c | 483.72$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.06 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Rockets | 39c | 374.68$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.66 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Spurs | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Rockets | 52c | 357.74$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.15 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Spurs | 53c | 357.05$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.81 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Rockets | 46c | 329.77$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.69 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Rockets | 46c | 329.5$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.57 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea60…e977backed Spurs | 53c | 283.02$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.02 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Spurs | 40c | 266.01$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.24 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Spurs | 54c | 261.68$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.65 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Rockets | 44c | 248.93$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.53 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Rockets | 36c | 241.5$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.74 | 397 | 36.3%144 W · 253 L | -27.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Rockets | 37c | 239.58$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.55 | 311 | 44.4%138 W · 173 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Spurs | 32c | 220.17$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.71 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…0493backed Spurs | 41c | 218.12$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.17 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb79b…cf30backed Spurs | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10c6…19b6backed Rockets | 68c | 157.33$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.35 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe156…5074backed Spurs | 52c | 135.92$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.92 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Spurs | 52c | 131.27$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.65 | 463 | 46.4%215 W · 248 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65f9…4dd7backed Spurs | 34c | 131$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.96 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Spurs | 52c | 114.28$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.85 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9e…bba8backed Rockets | 78c | 108$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.36 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Spurs | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 448 | 21.4%96 W · 352 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Spurs | 53c | 89$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.83 | 1,163 | 52.8%614 W · 549 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Rockets | 47c | 88.63$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.66 | 508 | 41.7%212 W · 296 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Spurs | 48c | 79$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.08 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…f219backed Spurs | 36c | 69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Rockets | 69c | 60.19$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.43 | 432 | 46.1%199 W · 233 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Spurs | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…8441backed Spurs | 53c | 55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 320 | 51.9%166 W · 154 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa45d…b413backed Rockets | 47c | 55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 116 | 53.4%62 W · 54 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b41…01c7backed Rockets | 47c | 52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 538 | 39.4%212 W · 326 L | -26.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…06c5backed Rockets | 48c | 43.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 177 | 50.8%90 W · 87 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57e5…e51ebacked Spurs | 53c | 39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 333 | 60.4%201 W · 132 L | +17.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…592bbacked Spurs | 45c | 28.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…4287backed Rockets | 48c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -5.1wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x47d9…da92backed Spurs | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed8…0e99backed Rockets | 52c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 456 | 53.5%244 W · 212 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef71…dedebacked Spurs | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3873…dec8backed Spurs | 55c | 20.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 442 | 43.7%193 W · 249 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Rockets (-3.5)this page
- Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 18.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- Jabari Smith Jr.: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Kevin Durant: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Kevin Durant: Points O/U 25.5No won
- Reed Sheppard: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Spread: Rockets (-2.5)Spurs won
- Spurs vs. RocketsSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Rockets: O/U 218.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Rockets: O/U 219.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Rockets: O/U 220.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Rockets: O/U 221.5Under won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 22.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.