NBA · resolved market
Spurs vs. Cavaliers: O/U 237.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18bc4aefa101e2f709b7e7e615b226c1a4de787e31d198e1484185ee54f1ce33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,835
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,786
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,835 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Under | 45c | 6,331$2,849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,848.96 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 55c | 3,941$2,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,775.89 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 12c | 1,090$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.38 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05bc…2c3cbacked Over | 54c | 972.22$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.22 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +95.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 45c | 582$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.9 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 45c | 444$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.8 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +13.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 55c | 421$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.45 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 55c | 400$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…505abacked Under | 5c | 320$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b1…8424backed Over | 55c | 266.35$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9a…4e25backed Under | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 288 | 38.2%110 W · 178 L | -18.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Under | 45c | 184.21$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.89 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…e20fbacked Over | 55c | 175$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.75 | 499 | 38.9%194 W · 305 L | -23.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x155d…c983backed Over | 53c | 130.19$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc89…c577backed Over | 55c | 109.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0da…aacebacked Over | 52c | 101.85$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 48c | 99.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9549…b936backed Over | 53c | 66.59$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.3 | 244 | 52.5%128 W · 116 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 47c | 56.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 54c | 52.01$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd64…c090backed Over | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 56c | 32.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 415 | 56.9%236 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3698…7160backed Over | 55c | 29.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Under | 49c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 500 | 47.2%236 W · 264 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…6349backed Over | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Over | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 710 | 44.6%317 W · 393 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 48c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43af…da96backed Over | 55c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…7fe3backed Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spurs vs. Cavaliers: O/U 237.5this page
- Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)Cavaliers won
- Spurs vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
- Spurs vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Cavaliers: O/U 238.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Cavaliers: O/U 239.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.