NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea870d60ed3f4ca0938a75e94e8fd17371055b35f392eaba5c3bce3d8121a785
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cavaliersof Cavaliers, Spurs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,965
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,998
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,965 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Spurs | 48c | 41,664$19,870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,870.08 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09d1…9d8fbacked Cavaliers | 52c | 28,172$14,649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,522.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Cavaliers | 53c | 14,992$7,946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,046.24 | 593 | 47%279 W · 314 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Spurs | 52c | 8,364$4,374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,373.56 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d6…34e3backed Cavaliers | 46c | 6,594$3,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,540.51 | 205 | 42.9%88 W · 117 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Cavaliers | 49c | 4,444$2,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,255.33 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Cavaliers | 49c | 3,872$1,897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,974.48 | 1,024 | 50.8%520 W · 504 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a0…43cfbacked Cavaliers | 45c | 3,800$1,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,090 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48a9…cd76backed Spurs | 55c | 3,800$2,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,090 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +4.7wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Spurs | 48c | 3,322$1,581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,580.66 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8567…514cbacked Spurs | 51c | 2,843$1,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,450 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Spurs | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 220 | 53.6%118 W · 102 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Cavaliers | 52c | 1,313$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.11 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Spurs | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 356 | 51.1%182 W · 174 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3414…067abacked Cavaliers | 48c | 930.37$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.79 | 315 | 38.1%120 W · 195 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Spurs | 47c | 702$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.74 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Spurs | 55c | 499.99$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 569 | 45.3%258 W · 311 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc0…a988backed Spurs | 53c | 453$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.09 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Cavaliers | 51c | 436.08$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.68 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Cavaliers | 49c | 421$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.71 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Spurs | 47c | 391$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.77 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b2…6d9dbacked Cavaliers | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed Cavaliers | 50c | 260$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Spurs | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 179 | 41.9%75 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Spurs | 49c | 250$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 107 | 35.5%38 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…a556backed Cavaliers | 51c | 215.69$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.69 | 229 | 53.7%123 W · 106 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe025…102fbacked Cavaliers | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Spurs | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Cavaliers | 49c | 204$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.1 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20e9…d516backed Spurs | 50c | 198.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8a…b155backed Cavaliers | 45c | 166.67$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.67 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc483…8ac8backed Cavaliers | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Cavaliers | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked Spurs | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 196 | 52.6%103 W · 93 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…5c00backed Cavaliers | 47c | 85.62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.38 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4e…dc93backed Cavaliers | 49c | 55.35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.23 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71f6…e115backed Spurs | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Cavaliers | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,053 | 53.5%563 W · 490 L | -15.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Spurs | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82d3…08bcbacked Spurs | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Spurs | 48c | 25.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f19…b0cabacked Cavaliers | 45c | 25.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 244 | 23.8%58 W · 186 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Spurs | 53c | 21.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 563 | 48.5%273 W · 290 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)this page
- Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)Cavaliers won
- Spurs vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
- Spurs vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Cavaliers: O/U 237.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Cavaliers: O/U 238.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Cavaliers: O/U 239.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.