NBA · resolved market
Spurs vs. Cavaliers: O/U 238.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x064735013c149744390f9b17eaa7ce6664ae0061e205d1466d46b32c6124268f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,030
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,030
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,030 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Under | 51c | 7,978$4,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,067.98 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 49c | 1,840$902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$938.4 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Over | 49c | 1,414$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.14 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 1,296$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.37 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x911d…2438backed Over | 49c | 1,169$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.39 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed Over | 53c | 1,125$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.57 | 363 | 51.2%186 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Over | 49c | 1,029$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.79 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27df…e67cbacked Over | 53c | 492.51$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.51 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 47c | 444$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.68 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +13.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 47c | 437.17$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.47 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 48c | 269.23$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.23 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae53…d80bbacked Over | 52c | 269.23$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.23 | 409 | 52.1%213 W · 196 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Over | 50c | 224.04$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.22 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 49c | 210.8$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.41 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x024e…2e48backed Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…ed2bbacked Under | 48c | 79.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6caf…7ef6backed Over | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe56a…9ef1backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…0bb5backed Over | 53c | 58.49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92dc…ae66backed Over | 51c | 56.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 53c | 52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 51c | 49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e9…f67fbacked Under | 50c | 38.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…4740backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 236 | 42.4%100 W · 136 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb630…00edbacked Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.26per pick | 52cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4906…46a1backed Over | 53c | 33.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b8…e54fbacked Over | 51c | 30.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9202…8ef9backed Over | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…48b7backed Over | 53c | 26.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a1…978abacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spurs vs. Cavaliers: O/U 238.5this page
- Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)Cavaliers won
- Spurs vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
- Spurs vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Cavaliers: O/U 237.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Cavaliers: O/U 239.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.