NBA · resolved market
Spurs vs. Cavaliers: O/U 239.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd74326db77f0ea53159e51a3e336c08256da277a79dbfaa9e073355ab5260b25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,690
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,690
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,690 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd3d6…34e3backed Under | 50c | 13,778$6,889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,889.02 | 205 | 42.9%88 W · 117 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 10,954$5,465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,488.64 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Under | 51c | 1,471$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Under | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 156 | 53.8%84 W · 72 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Under | 51c | 400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 617 | 40.7%251 W · 366 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 49c | 400$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 49c | 246.08$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92fa…7d02backed Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 44c | 123.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…5ca7backed Over | 56c | 80.36$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 49c | 75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Over | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 174 | 44.3%77 W · 97 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 49c | 51.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +13.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…91c0backed Over | 55c | 43.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1da6…53edbacked Over | 51c | 36.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe425…9405backed Under | 52c | 30.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spurs vs. Cavaliers: O/U 239.5this page
- Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)Cavaliers won
- Spurs vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
- Spurs vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Cavaliers: O/U 237.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Cavaliers: O/U 238.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.