NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5108c82128d0f058cd54756b9c25d4516d73b7240e9f67eddbacf25c15a147c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cavaliersof Cavaliers, Spurs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,031
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,011
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,031 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Spurs | 52c | 32,267$16,779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,778.77 | 173 | 54.3%94 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Cavaliers | 48c | 20,000$9,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,400 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cavaliers | 45c | 7,588$3,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,178.46 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Cavaliers | 48c | 5,420$2,591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,828.8 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Cavaliers | 48c | 5,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,600 | 278 | 40.6%113 W · 165 L | -22.5wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Spurs | 53c | 5,000$2,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,649.99 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Cavaliers | 47c | 3,173$1,485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,687.69 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Cavaliers | 43c | 1,534$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$874.18 | 256 | 42.6%109 W · 147 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Spurs | 57c | 1,500$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Cavaliers | 47c | 802$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.55 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Spurs | 54c | 500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 736 | 49.9%367 W · 369 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Spurs | 59c | 500$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.5 | 563 | 48.5%273 W · 290 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Cavaliers | 46c | 396.93$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.36 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Cavaliers | 45c | 355$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.79 | 446 | 48%214 W · 232 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf58d…914abacked Spurs | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 138 | 60.1%83 W · 55 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf09f…8049backed Spurs | 60c | 300$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 666 | 45.9%306 W · 360 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…7993backed Spurs | 59c | 270$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.3 | 617 | 47.8%295 W · 322 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Spurs | 53c | 250$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.5 | 569 | 45.3%258 W · 311 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cavaliers | 52c | 229.84$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.18 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Cavaliers | 47c | 227.66$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.66 | 293 | 46.4%136 W · 157 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca47…3ef4backed Spurs | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d48…b9a1backed Spurs | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f27…6ea7backed Spurs | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 141 | 45.4%64 W · 77 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x007b…adc6backed Spurs | 53c | 183.98$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.51 | 147 | 27.9%41 W · 106 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd643…9811backed Spurs | 55c | 181.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf531…b062backed Spurs | 56c | 180$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 548 | 38%208 W · 340 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Spurs | 56c | 180$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 368 | 54.1%199 W · 169 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…e20fbacked Spurs | 53c | 176$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.28 | 499 | 38.9%194 W · 305 L | -23.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Spurs | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Spurs | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1448…9b9cbacked Spurs | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3414…067abacked Cavaliers | 47c | 153.64$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.43 | 315 | 38.1%120 W · 195 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Spurs | 53c | 138$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.14 | 179 | 41.9%75 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Cavaliers | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.45 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5da9…582ebacked Cavaliers | 43c | 115.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.91 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Cavaliers | 47c | 111.18$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc7…b89bbacked Spurs | 58c | 103.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…0e78backed Spurs | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 631 | 42%265 W · 366 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7497…1dc4backed Spurs | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Cavaliers | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ce…daddbacked Spurs | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…fcf3backed Spurs | 57c | 96.49$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 124 | 54%67 W · 57 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…6296backed Spurs | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e2…31e4backed Spurs | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 112 | 51.8%58 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e7…85a1backed Spurs | 57c | 86$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.02 | 195 | 56.9%111 W · 84 L | +20.0wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Spurs | 57c | 85.61$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 324 | 50%162 W · 162 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd63e…0d52backed Spurs | 58c | 81.03$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 165 | 55.2%91 W · 74 L | -12.1wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebac…be55backed Spurs | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 121 | 53.7%65 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed Cavaliers | 46c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.7 | 127 | 43.3%55 W · 72 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Cavaliers | 47c | 70$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 174 | 44.3%77 W · 97 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…ee32backed Spurs | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0373…4057backed Spurs | 57c | 61.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 215 | 34%73 W · 142 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Cavaliers | 44c | 60.23$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Spurs | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7578…e5dabacked Spurs | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Spurs | 54c | 55.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 516 | 51.2%264 W · 252 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc968…c59bbacked Spurs | 53c | 50.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…0831backed Spurs | 55c | 49.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 185 | 58.4%108 W · 77 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Spurs | 58c | 48.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 905 | 60.8%550 W · 355 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x370b…5009backed Spurs | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Spurs | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 408 | 53.7%219 W · 189 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed Spurs | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 253 | 51%129 W · 124 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffb2…3bb5backed Spurs | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa19f…f745backed Spurs | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5748…7b81backed Spurs | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Spurs | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…f12fbacked Spurs | 52c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…4740backed Spurs | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 236 | 42.4%100 W · 136 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb630…00edbacked Spurs | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.26per pick | 52cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc75…88acbacked Spurs | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…a54abacked Spurs | 53c | 30.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.25per pick | 51cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Spurs | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1365…97dfbacked Spurs | 58c | 29.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Spurs | 54c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x075a…8d34backed Spurs | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 128 | 58.6%75 W · 53 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21d…ba2ebacked Spurs | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…6349backed Spurs | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a5…fb44backed Spurs | 58c | 17.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 125 | 61.6%77 W · 48 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)this page
- Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)Cavaliers won
- Spurs vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
- Spurs vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Cavaliers: O/U 237.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Cavaliers: O/U 238.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Cavaliers: O/U 239.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.