Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: DYNASTY vs FTS - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18c2be90d1f5b7dde2035280a92e3fda7597c27e94cb2bb00671594e89cf0b60
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- DYNASTYof DYNASTY, FTS
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,027
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,258
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,027 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked DYNASTY | 71c | 3,980$2,811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,169.44 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked FTS | 29c | 3,149$921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920.8 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6373…a0b7backed FTS | 2c | 2,728$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.21 | 148 | 25%37 W · 111 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed DYNASTY | 69c | 1,029$713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.81 | 503 | 53.9%271 W · 232 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked FTS | 10c | 832$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.48 | 899 | 38%342 W · 557 L | -45.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07fa…f5cdbacked FTS | 29c | 699.99$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 462 | 40.7%188 W · 274 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x233a…ae12backed FTS | 10c | 648.62$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec96…f5d7backed FTS | 31c | 642.74$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 372 | 53%197 W · 175 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f4…c1e4backed FTS | 2c | 590.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 426 | 39.4%168 W · 258 L | -39.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed FTS | 28c | 449.63$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.01 | 381 | 42%160 W · 221 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4a…3da9backed DYNASTY | 77c | 436.33$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.12 | 18 | 88.9%16 W · 2 L | +4.7wins | +0.26per pick | 63cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked FTS | 28c | 383.94$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.68 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91b9…889fbacked FTS | 31c | 325.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1747…4afcbacked FTS | 29c | 305.93$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.5 | 143 | 43.4%62 W · 81 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed FTS | 35c | 251.61$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.82 | 170 | 40.6%69 W · 101 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked FTS | 7c | 239.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked DYNASTY | 71c | 238$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.96 | 772 | 56.5%436 W · 336 L | +30.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e54…511ebacked FTS | 25c | 177.71$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 281 | 45.6%128 W · 153 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1028…f3fcbacked FTS | 30c | 160$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe23f…196fbacked DYNASTY | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked FTS | 18c | 108.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…6fe0backed FTS | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 275 | 48%132 W · 143 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed FTS | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdd…e70ebacked FTS | 31c | 95.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…4fa2backed FTS | 20c | 93.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 536 | 34%182 W · 354 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…babcbacked FTS | 36c | 85.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7c…8b29backed DYNASTY | 72c | 78.5$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 148 | 61.5%91 W · 57 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa042…cba4backed DYNASTY | 70c | 69.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6204…caa8backed DYNASTY | 71c | 69.01$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x499f…b72bbacked FTS | 26c | 66.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a3…fad7backed FTS | 33c | 55.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed DYNASTY | 75c | 51.83$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 108 | 33.3%36 W · 72 L | -13.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2133…7903backed FTS | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5008…9466backed DYNASTY | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a00…59e2backed DYNASTY | 72c | 46.95$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +4.3wins | +0.25per pick | 63cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x626a…3d36backed DYNASTY | 75c | 43.79$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 69 | 65.2%45 W · 24 L | +7.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked DYNASTY | 71c | 40.4$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 669 | 47.1%315 W · 354 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad22…014abacked DYNASTY | 70c | 36.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 473 | 58.6%277 W · 196 L | +25.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x360a…1098backed DYNASTY | 64c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.26per pick | 56cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed DYNASTY | 75c | 28.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 274 | 59.5%163 W · 111 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c2f…2586backed DYNASTY | 73c | 23.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.23per pick | 64cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5950…068ebacked DYNASTY | 66c | 22.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x050c…bf27backed DYNASTY | 69c | 20.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d10…b3d0backed DYNASTY | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f83…086fbacked DYNASTY | 66c | 16.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc37d…e586backed DYNASTY | 76c | 14.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 387 | 59.4%230 W · 157 L | +26.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: DYNASTY vs FTS - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: DYNASTY vs FTS (BO3) - EPL Masters 2 Play-In Group ADYNASTY won
- Dota 2: DYNASTY vs FTS - Game 2 WinnerDYNASTY won
- Game Handicap: DYNASTY (-1.5) vs FTS (+1.5)DYNASTY won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.