Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18ce47bb190af6f991096e279962a18e702cf9f3718b9f988fc370d72ba34466
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,693
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,745
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,693 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed Yes | 9c | 1,793$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.13 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed Yes | 45c | 699.99$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 58c | 689.02$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.54 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 74c | 347.82$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.11 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0840…9746backed Yes | 45c | 285.7$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.97 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 42c | 271.26$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.79 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 62c | 256.78$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.3 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4343…8deabacked Yes | 35c | 217.08$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 63c | 210$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.7 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb231…5dd7backed Yes | 68c | 180$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.04 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes | 39c | 153.92$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.72 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 42c | 153$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.34 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 60c | 151.83$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.35 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24d…947abacked Yes | 76c | 131.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 39c | 127.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 64c | 113$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.68 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 43c | 110.46$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.12 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 31c | 101.47$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa13b…f981backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3639…4186backed Yes | 56c | 88.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Yes | 46c | 87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.01 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5546…c8cebacked No | 45c | 80$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 98 | 19.4%19 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…c040backed Yes | 21c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 59c | 67.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1276…ec87backed No | 45c | 62$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.13 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 62c | 61.59$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 49c | 59.87$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.52 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed Yes | 54c | 57.93$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.43 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e70…bb75backed No | 42c | 52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 36c | 50.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…9a4ebacked Yes | 40c | 49.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked Yes | 51c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed No | 55c | 42.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 45c | 39.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 42c | 38.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb8…7809backed Yes | 43c | 34.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 48c | 30.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12aa…37edbacked Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 34c | 29.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 47c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x772f…b3aebacked No | 55c | 27.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed No | 51c | 27.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 58c | 26.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe5…fe4abacked Yes | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed No | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd27f…13afbacked No | 74c | 24.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 65c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3d…bdddbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 28?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on July 28?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on July 28?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 28?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.