Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on July 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69e5d3c897ce23c9755ff2a6f73433d3b1001c1c8fda0cc2fad8aae6036032b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,152
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,821
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,152 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 24c | 360.86$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.39 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 11c | 349.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.57 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 27c | 313.43$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.72 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 27c | 217.39$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.28 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 25c | 190$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.05 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 37c | 170.97$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.52 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 65c | 170.82$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.18 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed No | 15c | 169.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 27c | 154.05$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.48 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4343…8deabacked Yes | 65c | 140$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb231…5dd7backed Yes | 51c | 117.8$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.79 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 13c | 112.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e70…bb75backed Yes | 59c | 111.26$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.96 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 23c | 105.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed No | 13c | 99.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0840…9746backed Yes | 59c | 88.49$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.69 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 60c | 82.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed No | 24c | 77.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 64c | 72.59$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 31c | 71.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 25c | 69.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 33c | 68.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.3 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 46c | 51.05$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebe…a64dbacked Yes | 20c | 50.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.57 | 103 | 25.2%26 W · 77 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 30c | 45.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 68c | 45.04$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf255…a6e8backed No | 74c | 42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 82 | 69.5%57 W · 25 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 79c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.21 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked Yes | 58c | 37.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed Yes | 51c | 35.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…d8ccbacked Yes | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 47c | 25.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…6dcebacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5c…767bbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -7.3wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 58c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x965b…e530backed No | 73c | 17.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 57 | 70.2%40 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on July 28?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on July 28?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 28?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 28?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.