Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18d19ee1593c5f758c9b652fae58b0ea98e8b28f3cc6c6ce42816dd032f9c8a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,150
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,111
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,150 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9470…989dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,524$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 109 | 27.5%30 W · 79 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 12c | 1,382$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.34 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed No | 37c | 1,191$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$755.6 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 2c | 933.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 76c | 824.38$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.29 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 16c | 810.1$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.75 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 45c | 799.98$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.65 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 45c | 763.62$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.47 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x556b…4e33backed Yes | 6c | 619.41$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.43 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 18c | 449.98$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.33 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 41c | 413.36$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.24 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 53c | 393.49$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.66 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 21c | 390.26$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.24 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 62c | 306.6$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.02 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked No | 42c | 298$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.97 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 36c | 287.16$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.64 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 79c | 273.85$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 10c | 247$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.05 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5625…bf3fbacked Yes | 5c | 229.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9e…2264backed Yes | 7c | 190.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x199d…c3c9backed No | 57c | 157$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.67 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 24c | 156$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.31 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd00f…1ba0backed Yes | 62c | 155.81$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.61 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…90bcbacked No | 60c | 131$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.95 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 70cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 62c | 127.44$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.47 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 14c | 126.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 56c | 115$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.86 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed No | 16c | 86.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.97 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…e80cbacked Yes | 20c | 77.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…8b13backed No | 13c | 77.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.97 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 65$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 43c | 55.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5597…0c9fbacked Yes | 41c | 53.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 59c | 52.25$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 60c | 30.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9248…6955backed No | 60c | 22.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5f…018fbacked Yes | 70c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 80 | 28.8%23 W · 57 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 64c | 16.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 77c | 15.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 79c | 12.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.67 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.