Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe644bd5bccc5c585b1c12be37cb8f44c0721c13c9f6264ddee74202a5a80533
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,607
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,518
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,607 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x199d…c3c9backed Yes | 2c | 3,596$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.64 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 69c | 535.64$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.77 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 31c | 377.16$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.87 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 30c | 321.45$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.84 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 13c | 232.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 171.01$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 23c | 170.41$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 30c | 166$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.42 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 34c | 145.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 26c | 136.42$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.39 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 10c | 121.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa821…0bc8backed No | 76c | 118.73$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 74c | 114.2$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 16c | 107.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d98…680abacked Yes | 27c | 99.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9470…989dbacked Yes | 16c | 81.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 109 | 27.5%30 W · 79 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 81$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 16c | 76.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 18c | 73.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 27c | 68.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa532…cc03backed No | 69c | 62.98$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5f…018fbacked Yes | 37c | 62.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 80 | 28.8%23 W · 57 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 25c | 62.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 57$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 28c | 56.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9af…7722backed Yes | 28c | 53.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…c46ebacked Yes | 23c | 51.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 25c | 49.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 30c | 45.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f70…133ebacked No | 71c | 43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 70c | 40.71$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 38.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 66c | 37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 36.86$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 32.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa110…dc18backed No | 69c | 28.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe64f…6cc3backed No | 72c | 27.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 79c | 27.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 74c | 26.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83aa…35bbbacked No | 77c | 24.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed36…ac89backed No | 76c | 21.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73a8…a8b7backed No | 61c | 19.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…ea66backed No | 73c | 16.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…90bcbacked No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 70cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.