Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8396b8c80ed57c571a186fdefcecb91c150594f2e188fdf4f4d8bc39192f3d70
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,634
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,572
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,634 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 60c | 1,678$1,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.21 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 14c | 771.98$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.23 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 9c | 619.53$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.05 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 78c | 551.61$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.63 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 30c | 392.92$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.11 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 15c | 250.27$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.47 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 49c | 237.72$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.64 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 58c | 227.15$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.16 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 9c | 219.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.45 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 9c | 204.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.7 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 14c | 185$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d55…7cbabacked No | 15c | 165$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -6.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 21c | 163.12$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.14 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 11c | 150.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.4 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5f…018fbacked Yes | 42c | 145.45$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.69 | 80 | 28.8%23 W · 57 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 126.61$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.67 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 41c | 119.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.59 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 10c | 116.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.52 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 19c | 103.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.93 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.17 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9470…989dbacked Yes | 11c | 96.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.28 | 109 | 27.5%30 W · 79 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 28c | 91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 78c | 90$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.08 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 38c | 76.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 24c | 74.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.61 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x697a…4024backed No | 74c | 67.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb04…48cfbacked Yes | 16c | 67.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.91 | 100 | 23%23 W · 77 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 76c | 67$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.85 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 57$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.28 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 65c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 63c | 48.7$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 57c | 42.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 44c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.59 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…3c9cbacked No | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked No | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 37c | 29.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9248…6955backed No | 70c | 29.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 77c | 26.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 69c | 22.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ec…5946backed No | 78c | 21.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 79c | 15.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.