NBA · resolved market
Nets vs. Wizards: O/U 231.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18f2dac9db9450ca198ab441650ac48fe07ef4c8c371efa8602f68aed35b5ba1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,896
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,160
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,896 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 46c | 2,779$1,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,289.71 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8331…965abacked Over | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…c075backed Over | 60c | 1,166$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.34 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69ff…0d1dbacked Over | 57c | 900$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.5 | 331 | 46.2%153 W · 178 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 44c | 888$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.72 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +13.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa499…7873backed Over | 55c | 840$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.33 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 43c | 750$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.5 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 46c | 539.5$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.92 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Under | 50c | 443.92$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.96 | 346 | 45.4%157 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 43c | 248.28$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.11 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69dc…336dbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,290 | 44%567 W · 723 L | +35.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 39c | 164.18$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.03 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Over | 55c | 145$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.25 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87f5…86a8backed Under | 52c | 125.19$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 48c | 115.19$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.9 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 44c | 113$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.72 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe49a…f498backed Over | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.14 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -6.0wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 44c | 99.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.49 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 48c | 71.15$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.15 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x547f…016dbacked Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2921…78b3backed Over | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ec…ad73backed Over | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 194 | 51.5%100 W · 94 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc58e…0893backed Over | 58c | 35.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a2…0c1abacked Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Over | 52c | 30.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 302 | 44%133 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…2d7ebacked Over | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 47c | 24.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…91c0backed Over | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd49f…33a4backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nets vs. Wizards: O/U 231.5this page
- 1H Spread: Wizards (-1.5)Nets won
- Nets vs. WizardsNets won
- Nets vs. Wizards: 1H MoneylineNets won
- Nets vs. Wizards: O/U 232.5Over won
- Nets vs. Wizards: O/U 233.5Over won
- Nets vs. Wizards: O/U 234.5Over won
- Spread: Wizards (-2.5)Nets won
- Spread: Wizards (-3.5)Nets won
- Spread: Wizards (-4.5)Nets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.