TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Nets vs. Wizards: O/U 233.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,386
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,914

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,386 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Under52c6,318$3,280 inLost-$3,280.29,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf5d…7253backed Over45c3,667$1,650 inWon+$2,016.6711242.9%48 W · 64 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8331…965abacked Over53c1,510$800 inWon+$709.674755.3%26 W · 21 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Over50c1,000$500 inWon+$500.3540243.8%176 W · 226 L-1.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4517…f700backed Over51c1,000$510 inWon+$49017147.4%81 W · 90 L+13.7wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+36.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd6bd…270cbacked Over50c1,000$500 inWon+$50012452.4%65 W · 59 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Under49c1,000$490 inLost-$4903,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fc1…ffeebacked Under51c980.39$500 inLost-$50036943.4%160 W · 209 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Under38c721.73$274 inLost-$274.22,26543.4%982 W · 1,283 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Under52c678.23$350 inLost-$349.522,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Over50c550$276 inWon+$274.51,19747.5%569 W · 628 L-32.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3495…ca3dbacked Over52c393.27$203 inWon+$190.27366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+33.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fab…ba37backed Over53c349.11$185 inWon+$164.08757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Over48c300$144 inWon+$15672647.7%346 W · 380 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Under47c289.36$136 inLost-$1363,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd8d…a108backed Over55c272.73$150 inWon+$122.7310347.6%49 W · 54 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb113…8bc6backed Under51c250$128 inLost-$127.522656.6%128 W · 98 L+13.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+16.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under47c246.04$116 inLost-$115.644,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under48c243.27$117 inLost-$116.775,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0362…c6d8backed Over53c219.36$116 inWon+$103.11060%6 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+16.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Over49c204.08$100 inWon+$104.081,25948.7%613 W · 646 L+1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd07…cb4ebacked Over49c204.08$100 inWon+$104.0820143.3%87 W · 114 L-12.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe6ee…b3aabacked Under51c204.08$104 inLost-$104.0836248.9%177 W · 185 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed Under50c200$100 inLost-$10023748.1%114 W · 123 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb86e…7395backed Over51c196.08$100 inWon+$96.081030%3 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-37.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x792f…cb67backed Over53c188.68$100 inWon+$88.68862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+20.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x46c8…6239backed Over53c188.68$100 inWon+$88.681070%7 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick52cpaid+33.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2d17…bc4cbacked Over53c188.68$100 inWon+$88.68955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under50c152.08$76 inLost-$76.083,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked Over48c150$72 inWon+$7837750.4%190 W · 187 L+12.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74d3…0332backed Under49c146.08$72 inLost-$71.5834645.4%157 W · 189 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204e…55eabacked Over51c100$51 inWon+$498552.9%45 W · 40 L+5.7wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+12.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdf37…8b49backed Under53c99.99$53 inLost-$539845.9%45 W · 53 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Over51c87$44 inWon+$43.0759743.6%260 W · 337 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88a2…68a0backed Over51c39.22$20 inWon+$19.2215351%78 W · 75 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b38…4d61backed Over47c27.92$13 inWon+$14.830244%133 W · 169 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a18…7a20backed Under51c23.53$12 inLost-$126952.2%36 W · 33 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c7d…a54abacked Under50c20$10 inLost-$101526.7%4 W · 11 L-3.7wins-0.25per pick51cpaid-53.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.