NBA · resolved market
Spread: Wizards (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4f5eca29f88253aad422ce6fc2a71b8e20636f40e806af89c2e3b112f417f3c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Netsof Wizards, Nets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,869
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,070
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,869 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Wizards | 43c | 1,345$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.37 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce7…dd41backed Nets | 57c | 749.12$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.12 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa95…447cbacked Nets | 57c | 701.75$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.75 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Wizards | 43c | 235.63$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.32 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6881…525dbacked Nets | 57c | 122$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.46 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…fc1abacked Wizards | 44c | 113.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Nets | 58c | 110$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Wizards | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 930 | 36.5%339 W · 591 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa9…7d07backed Wizards | 45c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Nets | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Wizards | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Wizards (-4.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Wizards (-1.5)Nets won
- Nets vs. WizardsNets won
- Nets vs. Wizards: 1H MoneylineNets won
- Nets vs. Wizards: O/U 231.5Over won
- Nets vs. Wizards: O/U 232.5Over won
- Nets vs. Wizards: O/U 233.5Over won
- Nets vs. Wizards: O/U 234.5Over won
- Spread: Wizards (-2.5)Nets won
- Spread: Wizards (-3.5)Nets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.