NBA · resolved market

Nets vs. Wizards: O/U 232.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59cc28164004caeb8e629b5be0e901c2d6c9faf603ad2c70302d7fd17a445199

Rebuilt 23 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Nov 16, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $47,081
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $48,196

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,081 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x8f03…64d6backed Under	52c	20,618$10,649 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,649.21	1,046	51.1%534 W · 512 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Over	51c	11,234$5,679 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,555.35	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Over	48c	6,640$3,182 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,457.91	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	48c	4,441$2,153 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,288.04	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Under	53c	2,939$1,558 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,557.63	877	50.2%440 W · 437 L	-19.7wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Under	46c	1,851$851 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$850.64	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8331…965abacked Over	54c	1,830$988 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$841.95	47	55.3%26 W · 21 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2d4…23e8backed Over	55c	1,000$550 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$450	24	41.7%10 W · 14 L	-2.9wins	-0.12per pick	54cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Under	37c	885.2$324 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$323.88	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c1c…a8f8backed Under	51c	861.68$436 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$436.31	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.4wins	-0.19per pick	34cpaid	-77%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over	44c	773.61$341 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$432.3	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b10…acabbacked Over	50c	622.01$311 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$311.01	149	53%79 W · 70 L	+10.0wins	+0.07per pick	46cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Over	52c	556$289 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$266.88	698	52%363 W · 335 L	+10.3wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb113…8bc6backed Under	47c	437.94$206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205.83	226	56.6%128 W · 98 L	+13.0wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+16.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Under	48c	407.31$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.03	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8314…0f1ebacked Over	52c	381.13$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$181.13	331	50.8%168 W · 163 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Over	50c	316$159 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$156.56	2,169	40.8%885 W · 1,284 L	-8.7wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over	50c	235$119 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$116.5	1,113	41.6%463 W · 650 L	-10.0wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa198…9601backed Over	53c	220$117 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$103.4	163	46.6%76 W · 87 L	-3.8wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe78e…55f0backed Under	53c	193.55$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.58	346	45.7%158 W · 188 L	+12.9wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3dd…45d3backed Over	54c	185.19$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.19	63	55.6%35 W · 28 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfde0…c21cbacked Under	50c	164.94$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.47	44	52.3%23 W · 21 L	+5.9wins	+0.13per pick	39cpaid	+40%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcd8d…a108backed Over	53c	132.08$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.08	103	47.6%49 W · 54 L	-5.4wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6b4…e861backed Over	56c	118.03$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.93	70	47.1%33 W · 37 L	-5.9wins	-0.08per pick	56cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd547…f7a8backed Over	60c	105$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42	10	50%5 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under	46c	102$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.9	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over	46c	100$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54	2,736	46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L	-67.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe098…8ee2backed Under	54c	100$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	207	54.1%112 W · 95 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45d1…7017backed Over	47c	100$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53	354	47.7%169 W · 185 L	+7.0wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Over	54c	97.66$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.4	597	43.6%260 W · 337 L	-11.9wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x48f8…9166backed Over	53c	94.34$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.34	171	45.6%78 W · 93 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf28…72aabacked Over	62c	86$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.58	133	18.8%25 W · 108 L	-9.4wins	-0.07per pick	26cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Under	34c	52.68$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.94	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x027e…fd4ebacked Over	47c	42.55$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.55	104	59.6%62 W · 42 L	-6.2wins	-0.06per pick	66cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e62…06f9backed Over	50c	40$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	118	44.1%52 W · 66 L	-4.2wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcda0…a51abacked Under	55c	37.77$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.95	296	52.7%156 W · 140 L	-6.2wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60b6…eb2bbacked Under	53c	37.74$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	45	22.2%10 W · 35 L	-10.8wins	-0.24per pick	46cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	33-0.15 edge/pick
0x7c73…36c5backed Under	53c	37.74$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	76	55.3%42 W · 34 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5729…c366backed Over	54c	37.04$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.04	48	50%24 W · 24 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under	47c	32.08$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.08	1,451	49.7%721 W · 730 L	+18.0wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Under	43c	29$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.56	1,132	17%192 W · 940 L	+2.5wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7652…f04dbacked Over	50c	27.04$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.52	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-1.1wins	-0.10per pick	46cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a18…7a20backed Over	58c	20.69$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.69	69	52.2%36 W · 33 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb62…d14fbacked Over	54c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.2	74	48.6%36 W · 38 L	-4.8wins	-0.06per pick	55cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Nets vs. Wizards: O/U 232.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event