NBA · resolved market
Spread: Wizards (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4fed1015573418b3fb9229dadb6e311094ba7ca79df32ef8586b25e923d17938
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Netsof Wizards, Nets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $103,972
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $104,341
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $103,972 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x82a1…e03abacked Nets | 51c | 78,361$40,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38,360.51 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Wizards | 49c | 29,711$14,648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,647.76 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Wizards | 49c | 19,287$9,451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,450.67 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Wizards | 49c | 10,450$5,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,120.5 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…61d0backed Wizards | 51c | 8,151$4,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,157.02 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…0234backed Nets | 50c | 5,343$2,671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,671.4 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | +13.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Wizards | 47c | 4,026$1,912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,912.2 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Wizards | 48c | 3,212$1,539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,539.18 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Nets | 50c | 1,020$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Wizards | 49c | 857$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.25 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Wizards | 50c | 700$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Wizards | 53c | 567$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.51 | 428 | 45.1%193 W · 235 L | -15.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…36cbbacked Wizards | 54c | 556.73$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 245 | 33.9%83 W · 162 L | -19.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Wizards | 49c | 500$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.5 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1377…56aebacked Wizards | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Wizards | 48c | 391$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.1 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nets | 48c | 310$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.2 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Nets | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe80…e0a6backed Wizards | 52c | 172.63$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Nets | 47c | 149.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 377 | 50.4%190 W · 187 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Nets | 50c | 132$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Nets | 48c | 124$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.48 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe45d…f77ebacked Wizards | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 253 | 36.8%93 W · 160 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Wizards | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Wizards | 52c | 96.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e2…31e4backed Wizards | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 112 | 51.8%58 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…6296backed Wizards | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Wizards | 53c | 66.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 377 | 55.7%210 W · 167 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Wizards | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Wizards | 51c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…845bbacked Wizards | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd49f…33a4backed Wizards | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Wizards (-2.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Wizards (-1.5)Nets won
- Nets vs. WizardsNets won
- Nets vs. Wizards: 1H MoneylineNets won
- Nets vs. Wizards: O/U 231.5Over won
- Nets vs. Wizards: O/U 232.5Over won
- Nets vs. Wizards: O/U 233.5Over won
- Nets vs. Wizards: O/U 234.5Over won
- Spread: Wizards (-3.5)Nets won
- Spread: Wizards (-4.5)Nets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.