NBA · resolved market

Spread: Wizards (-3.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28f453e24bef669b84e6dd02dd029eb57d4128a4edece68547e9d3feadfd2460

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Netsof Wizards, Nets
Resolved: Nov 16, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $16,886
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $17,009

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,886 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xc3c3…eec8backed Wizards	47c	10,000$4,700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,700	382	48.7%186 W · 196 L	+13.9wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Nets	53c	4,421$2,343 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,077.85	517	53.8%278 W · 239 L	+11.6wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74d3…0332backed Nets	53c	4,041$2,128 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,912.54	346	45.4%157 W · 189 L	+8.3wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Nets	51c	2,446$1,236 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,210.67	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8265…e0eebacked Wizards	50c	2,014$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	15	40%6 W · 9 L	-1.7wins	-0.11per pick	51cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Nets	53c	2,004$1,062 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$941.97	824	42.2%348 W · 476 L	-3.7wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4439…585fbacked Wizards	49c	1,020$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-2.0wins	-0.25per pick	50cpaid	-50%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x67a9…8447backed Nets	53c	835.55$443 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$392.71	16	68.8%11 W · 5 L	+3.2wins	+0.20per pick	49cpaid	+31.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x029b…1f75backed Wizards	48c	835.42$401 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$401	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.10per pick	50cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7448…b4cfbacked Nets	52c	580$302 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$278.4	26	42.3%11 W · 15 L	-1.9wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-15%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6fb2…5a60backed Wizards	48c	580$278 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$278.4	21	47.6%10 W · 11 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Nets	51c	553$282 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$270.97	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b80…76fabacked Wizards	48c	287.17$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.84	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-2.6wins	-0.26per pick	56cpaid	-51%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Nets	53c	276$146 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$129.72	857	42.6%365 W · 492 L	-15.6wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Nets	53c	219$116 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102.93	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd58b…48e8backed Nets	53c	200$106 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94	63	58.7%37 W · 26 L	+5.6wins	+0.09per pick	50cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Wizards	47c	170$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.9	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Nets	51c	157.73$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77.29	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3576…8117backed Wizards	48c	156.25$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	204	44.6%91 W · 113 L	-9.8wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7740…cd28backed Wizards	49c	143.73$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.43	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.17per pick	49cpaid	+34.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Nets	51c	100$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15e3…009fbacked Wizards	47c	100$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	373	57.4%214 W · 159 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5d3…e601backed Wizards	47c	99.74$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.88	135	50.4%68 W · 67 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Wizards	48c	81.75$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.24	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc18c…f683backed Nets	53c	73.58$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.58	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.4wins	+0.48per pick	52cpaid	+93.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Nets	53c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.4	658	55.6%366 W · 292 L	+27.0wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Wizards (-3.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event