MLB · resolved market
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1936eb85d87bf2f18a741cb794f627b860ee8a682e0b4dfe2b3d29defdc414f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $74,397
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,733
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,397 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 45c | 60,368$27,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,165.66 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 55c | 20,000$11,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,000 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed Under | 55c | 16,584$9,121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,462.69 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +237.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 55c | 14,588$8,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,569.97 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Under | 54c | 7,121$3,820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,300.84 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Over | 47c | 2,201$1,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,036.51 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 45c | 1,598$721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$721.31 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec8d…dd71backed Under | 55c | 1,100$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495 | 273 | 51.3%140 W · 133 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 53c | 1,064$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.08 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 47c | 1,019$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.77 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 55c | 955$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.75 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 22c | 768.75$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.98 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Under | 55c | 666.66$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 328 | 57.9%190 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 55c | 645$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.25 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 55c | 637$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.65 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0373…6d6bbacked Under | 55c | 636.36$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.36 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 55c | 603.27$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.47 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 13c | 570.48$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.12 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked Under | 53c | 550$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.5 | 252 | 49.2%124 W · 128 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86ee…511fbacked Over | 46c | 543.48$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 243 | 50.6%123 W · 120 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 47c | 523.63$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.1 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 45c | 500.1$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.05 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Under | 55c | 496.75$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.54 | 383 | 53.5%205 W · 178 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 7c | 342.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 47c | 340$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.8 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 43c | 325.33$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.89 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Under | 55c | 239.39$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.73 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fd…3e24backed Under | 52c | 192$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.16 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Under | 55c | 182.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Under | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc78d…0bbdbacked Under | 55c | 181.81$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.81 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac65…cfe6backed Under | 55c | 148.49$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.82 | 137 | 59.1%81 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 47c | 93.74$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.06 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 54c | 93.7$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.1 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 47c | 93.63$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd77d…b01cbacked Under | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcce5…7eb2backed Under | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…f3c5backed Under | 53c | 90$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfab0…e0f5backed Under | 55c | 87.45$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.35 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Under | 66c | 84.13$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.86 | 507 | 48.7%247 W · 260 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 45c | 83$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 47c | 80.91$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.03 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…7dfbbacked Over | 18c | 79.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 330 | 32.7%108 W · 222 L | -22.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa20d…eadebacked Under | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 47c | 71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.37 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Under | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Under | 53c | 53.19$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f97…6aafbacked Under | 55c | 48.42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 111 | 49.5%55 W · 56 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 52c | 44.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7468…3d24backed Under | 53c | 41.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 48c | 38.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe840…733cbacked Under | 55c | 34.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -13.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffc…a5b7backed Under | 54c | 28.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Under | 54c | 25.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e93…be55backed Under | 55c | 21.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 237 | 50.6%120 W · 117 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 67c | 19.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee8…7406backed Under | 80c | 12.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.59 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5this page
- New York Mets vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.