MLB · resolved market
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbaafc94b2d28ca9cbd77a6efd04043ffcfcb224d2efe7d73f9b5d048ab04deb8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof Miami Marlins, New York Mets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,209
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,568
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,209 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked New York Mets | 63c | 3,840$2,421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,420.55 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Miami Marlins | 37c | 3,124$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,963.89 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Miami Marlins | 37c | 1,331$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$838.39 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed New York Mets | 13c | 1,153$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.89 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed New York Mets | 65c | 1,085$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.28 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed New York Mets | 59c | 921.86$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.68 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80aa…e8eabacked New York Mets | 3c | 839.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 11cpaid | +93.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Miami Marlins | 35c | 828.65$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.62 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5005…23febacked New York Mets | 2c | 636.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ee…2e1dbacked Miami Marlins | 31c | 533.33$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.39 | 129 | 40.3%52 W · 77 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Mets | 77c | 511.21$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.59 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed New York Mets | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 108 | 5.6%6 W · 102 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 2cpaid | +339.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Miami Marlins | 41c | 380.95$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.76 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Miami Marlins | 34c | 311.79$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.48 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Miami Marlins | 36c | 223.18$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.83 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Miami Marlins | 6c | 222$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.68 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Miami Marlins | 25c | 178.84$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.13 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed New York Mets | 57c | 178$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.46 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed New York Mets | 71c | 157.11$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.6 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Miami Marlins | 42c | 133.69$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.54 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed New York Mets | 15c | 129.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…ab9fbacked Miami Marlins | 40c | 124.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.41 | 339 | 34.5%117 W · 222 L | -9.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4a…3647backed New York Mets | 14c | 115.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed New York Mets | 68c | 111.22$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.63 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed New York Mets | 62c | 104.54$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.82 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked New York Mets | 65c | 55.57$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Miami Marlins | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Miami Marlins | 35c | 45.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.82 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Miami Marlins | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked New York Mets | 78c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed New York Mets | 64c | 31.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea47…d64bbacked New York Mets | 72c | 24.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked New York Mets | 66c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed New York Mets | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)this page
- New York Mets vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.