F1 · resolved market
F1 Hungarian GP: Hamilton vs. Russell
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x198df1fb4e23832d9fe42be5ebb889d7f1e7cdcc8816538e764ba7e24a6009e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Russell of Hamilton , Russell
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,785
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,769
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,785 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed Hamilton | 50c | 677.86$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.15 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c0…722ebacked Russell | 50c | 530$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 44 | 72.7%32 W · 12 L | +8.9wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Russell | 52c | 500$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.38 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Hamilton | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x426e…5922backed Hamilton | 53c | 344.71$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.72 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62fe…3983backed Hamilton | 9c | 299.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…2358backed Hamilton | 10c | 205.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +4.4wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2e43…36aabacked Russell | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Hamilton | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9e…49b3backed Russell | 54c | 79.98$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.59 | 85 | 29.4%25 W · 60 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Russell | 51c | 58.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.68 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Hamilton | 49c | 49.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8230…9074backed Hamilton | 20c | 48.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Russell | 52c | 44.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe590…73e9backed Hamilton | 46c | 41.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Hamilton | 56c | 36.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 38.6%32 W · 51 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8c…ad03backed Russell | 48c | 31.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe06c…7bb1backed Hamilton | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Russell | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- F1 Hungarian GP: Hamilton vs. Russell this page
- F1 Hungarian GP: Albon vs. Sainz Sainz won
- F1 Hungarian GP: Alonso vs. Stroll Alonso won
- F1 Hungarian GP: Hadjar vs. TsunodaHadjar won
- F1 Hungarian GP: Hamilton vs. Leclerc Leclerc won
- F1 Hungarian GP: Leclerc vs. Russell Russell won
- F1 Hungarian GP: Leclerc vs. VerstappenLeclerc won
- F1 Hungarian GP: Piastri vs. Norris Norris won
- F1 Hungarian GP: Verstappen vs. Norris Norris won
- F1 Hungarian GP: Verstappen vs. Piastri Piastri won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.