F1 · resolved market
F1 Hungarian GP: Piastri vs. Norris
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f9cdfbd4e8f91f42cdff1b313695c7ccda0b0dc5171ae8c0b385a89954d7567
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Norris of Piastri, Norris
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,998
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,197
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,998 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed Norris | 49c | 530.05$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.05 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Piastri | 62c | 380.88$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.15 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63c3…2783backed Norris | 38c | 369.65$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.65 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +398.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…2358backed Norris | 50c | 270.57$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.04 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +4.4wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd986…1320backed Norris | 49c | 249.27$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.77 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdc…9da2backed Piastri | 51c | 211.83$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.97 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Norris | 37c | 199.63$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.77 | 213 | 37.6%80 W · 133 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Piastri | 51c | 174.65$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.07 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…ff3abacked Piastri | 63c | 158.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ca…198bbacked Norris | 69c | 130.67$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.67 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fdb…7ea3backed Norris | 52c | 107$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Piastri | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe18c…dfa5backed Piastri | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Piastri | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…37efbacked Norris | 76c | 86.11$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -67%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e40…5678backed Norris | 60c | 58.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…94aabacked Piastri | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Piastri | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab4d…6546backed Piastri | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.9wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbfaa…82a3backed Norris | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76dc…17b4backed Piastri | 50c | 47.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | +10.3wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3f…e00bbacked Piastri | 48c | 42.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8018…4714backed Piastri | 52c | 34.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -54%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Piastri | 59c | 34.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8c…ad03backed Piastri | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…5a9abacked Piastri | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Norris | 49c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x147a…b4f1backed Norris | 38c | 26.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked Piastri | 60c | 22.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1dd…1ac0backed Piastri | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad4a…ddb8backed Norris | 60c | 19.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc072…c8fabacked Norris | 72c | 18.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- F1 Hungarian GP: Piastri vs. Norris this page
- F1 Hungarian GP: Albon vs. Sainz Sainz won
- F1 Hungarian GP: Alonso vs. Stroll Alonso won
- F1 Hungarian GP: Hadjar vs. TsunodaHadjar won
- F1 Hungarian GP: Hamilton vs. Leclerc Leclerc won
- F1 Hungarian GP: Hamilton vs. Russell Russell won
- F1 Hungarian GP: Leclerc vs. Russell Russell won
- F1 Hungarian GP: Leclerc vs. VerstappenLeclerc won
- F1 Hungarian GP: Verstappen vs. Norris Norris won
- F1 Hungarian GP: Verstappen vs. Piastri Piastri won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.