Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on July 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1999f5eb5e1f8bf1e51d95ee151b8d8fd1a13d51d46d4bd4816074e071b8e15a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,862
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,497
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,862 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 12c | 2,545$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.8 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 19c | 1,706$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.58 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 26c | 999.99$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.35 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 7c | 511.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.48 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 74c | 397.54$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.81 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 7c | 380.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 15c | 356$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.68 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 73c | 307.89$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.13 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 77c | 235.53$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.02 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 73c | 212.44$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.36 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 28c | 199.91$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.62 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 71c | 190$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.1 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 13c | 189.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 13c | 173.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 76c | 172$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 24c | 160.09$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.47 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 79c | 159.29$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.81 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 16c | 149.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 26c | 147.34$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.66 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 75c | 141.89$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.29 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 73c | 141.33$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.85 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed No | 73c | 140$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.45 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 7c | 136.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 16c | 136.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 75c | 126.67$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.67 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 73c | 117.89$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.33 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 110$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.13 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 23c | 104$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 25c | 100.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 144 | 34%49 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…c2b6backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 14c | 99.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 17c | 91.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 14c | 78.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 15c | 76.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 74c | 76.01$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9e…251fbacked Yes | 16c | 73.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +16.0wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 79c | 73.2$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97c5…018bbacked No | 80c | 66.1$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1790…6fd2backed Yes | 17c | 65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19af…6e63backed No | 75c | 65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 71c | 64.65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 18c | 61.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa98c…a75ebacked Yes | 18c | 59.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c85…b89cbacked Yes | 17c | 59.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 74c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 73c | 54.9$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bb…d53fbacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4075…cd19backed No | 75c | 49.03$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 22c | 47.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 21c | 46.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 72c | 43.81$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 72c | 42.83$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 74c | 39.04$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 37.64$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 74c | 36.64$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 71c | 29.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2518…1c0bbacked No | 78c | 26.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x405c…5afdbacked No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 78c | 25.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 70c | 24.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 77c | 21.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 75c | 19.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1e…862ebacked No | 74c | 18.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 70c | 18.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 70c | 18.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 70c | 18.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 74c | 18.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed No | 80c | 17.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 75c | 16.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 73c | 15.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83aa…35bbbacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x554e…b670backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on July 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on July 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.