Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on July 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x131e00441ed79cf209e790da718d05e2a5624becc13fdd37cdede47498ed1913
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,890
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,476
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,890 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 78c | 3,377$2,631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.25 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 2c | 1,606$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 54c | 1,399$749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.65 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 19c | 504.78$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.62 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 454.89$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.12 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed No | 49c | 413.98$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.88 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked No | 10c | 390$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 64c | 368.57$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.71 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 63c | 302.82$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.42 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a7…ecddbacked No | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 53c | 292.29$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.79 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 14c | 275.36$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.14 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 63c | 272.98$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.13 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 34c | 270.38$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.15 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 35c | 254$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.15 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 42c | 249.27$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.59 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa18d…e6f1backed Yes | 45c | 240$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.85 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 46c | 234.82$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.75 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed No | 50c | 224.55$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.04 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 16c | 220.18$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 218.23$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.88 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 37c | 206.92$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.33 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 24c | 194.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.17 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 39c | 162.47$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.01 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 31c | 159.15$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.31 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 38c | 157.88$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.88 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 50c | 157.13$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 68c | 147$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.28 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed Yes | 68c | 146.55$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd969…0932backed Yes | 40c | 145.1$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.66 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 115 | 19.1%22 W · 93 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 65c | 140$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 18c | 140$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4414…28d4backed Yes | 36c | 139.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.14 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 33c | 121.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.09 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 38c | 119.1$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.81 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 37c | 113.1$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.4 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 64c | 109.29$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.24 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 38c | 105.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.1 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed6…85aebacked No | 64c | 103.75$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.65 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 63c | 102.8$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.08 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb911…d6d0backed Yes | 49c | 102.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.1 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…c2b6backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 18c | 95.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 63c | 95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.9 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 12c | 91.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 68c | 88.05$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.07 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 50c | 86.12$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.16 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 54c | 85.1$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.21 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 35c | 85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…5961backed Yes | 72c | 82.49$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 31c | 77.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 61c | 75.48$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.09 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 37c | 75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.35 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 17c | 72.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 70c | 72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 29c | 70.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 64c | 70$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 61c | 70$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…1c86backed No | 18c | 69.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked Yes | 34c | 65.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.97 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d8…9d21backed Yes | 71c | 63.74$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…c336backed Yes | 54c | 62.4$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 54c | 60.4$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 50c | 59.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.09 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 24c | 58.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…88d0backed No | 64c | 58.07$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.16 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -7.0wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 33c | 58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 34c | 56.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 66c | 55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.35 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 65c | 54$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 64c | 50.46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 52c | 50.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.19 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 24c | 47.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 30c | 47.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 65c | 45.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 52c | 44.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.53 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 63c | 42.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4075…cd19backed No | 64c | 42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19af…6e63backed No | 64c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 64c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bb…d53fbacked No | 64c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 66c | 39.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 48c | 39.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 68c | 37.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 33c | 37.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 35c | 36.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x749c…6301backed No | 53c | 35.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…5d00backed No | 46c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 62c | 34.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 35c | 34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 45c | 33.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 45c | 33.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on July 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.