Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe900dae821f3fd6e54d36141469b3238bea8d36acbbd3ff8a78839b0361d546f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,972
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,677
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,972 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 5c | 5,679$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.53 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 452.93$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.39 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 76c | 370.93$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.4 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 20c | 339.15$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.36 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 31c | 308.48$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 76c | 297.08$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.77 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 21c | 270.66$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 80c | 259.29$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.95 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed No | 71c | 243.1$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.4 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 12c | 228.93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 32c | 228.88$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 204$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.37 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 19c | 159.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 28c | 150.9$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 18c | 141.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a7…ecddbacked Yes | 11c | 128.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed Yes | 12c | 114.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 13c | 105.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…c2b6backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 20c | 97.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 75c | 92.49$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 38c | 85.39$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 28c | 81.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 30c | 79.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 74c | 78$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 78c | 77$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 76c | 75$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 79c | 73.36$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 80c | 73.35$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4414…28d4backed No | 68c | 73.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 22c | 72.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 26c | 71.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 75c | 70.8$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 66c | 70.38$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 66c | 69.12$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.67 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6674…7efbbacked Yes | 40c | 68.02$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b79…49c5backed No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 27 | 81.5%22 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 79cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 61.92$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1049…8cc3backed Yes | 28c | 58.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 79c | 55.15$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 79c | 55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 76c | 52.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2146…3c18backed Yes | 19c | 52.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…e166backed No | 80c | 52$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…3e8bbacked Yes | 37c | 50.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 77c | 49.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3016…f1fcbacked Yes | 25c | 49.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 75c | 48.64$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7409…8e40backed Yes | 22c | 46.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 78c | 43.38$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 39.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 76c | 38.2$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 37c | 36.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 30.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 80c | 28.89$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 72c | 27.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0515…f02bbacked No | 80c | 26.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2518…1c0bbacked No | 79c | 26.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19af…6e63backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 76c | 24.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 69c | 24.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 72c | 22.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 70c | 21.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 77c | 20.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…dacbbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 169 | 50.9%86 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 67c | 17.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 75c | 16.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 76c | 15.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4075…cd19backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 79c | 14.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.03 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 78c | 13.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.88 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on July 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.