UFC · resolved market
O/U 2.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19b62b73a9d2a29ed594659c22a1937ce74bb26005bf24b447dd728d58100f10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,287
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,573
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,287 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 44c | 34,034$15,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,907.68 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10a6…4d8bbacked Under | 57c | 19,713$11,187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,186.59 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26b4…b8a9backed Under | 56c | 15,944$8,887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,887.02 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 43c | 2,368$1,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,349.76 | 71 | 28.2%20 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82d2…beeabacked Under | 48c | 1,525$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +4.4wins | +0.44per pick | 46cpaid | +104.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Over | 42c | 1,452$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$842.07 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe301…8654backed Under | 3c | 1,077$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x951f…e430backed Under | 49c | 499.99$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed Over | 44c | 489.47$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.73 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e8…7953backed Under | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 186 | 47.3%88 W · 98 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Under | 57c | 271.93$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 261 | 40.6%106 W · 155 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36bc…ec72backed Over | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 158 | 48.1%76 W · 82 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1c…8408backed Over | 43c | 189.65$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.1 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +51%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 51c | 185.45$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.87 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb98a…914bbacked Under | 49c | 146.98$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.02 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb87…a45dbacked Under | 49c | 146.4$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.74 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 51cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15bc…4a7ebacked Under | 49c | 146.4$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.74 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…be31backed Under | 49c | 123.63$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7465…caa8backed Over | 60c | 117.27$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.27 | 181 | 60.8%110 W · 71 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e5…1ea5backed Under | 49c | 104.57$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.24 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Over | 40c | 96.24$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.9 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x971f…1e98backed Under | 49c | 89.63$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.92 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc593…ea8cbacked Under | 49c | 71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c60…01febacked Under | 49c | 62.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78a1…5551backed Over | 51c | 50.6$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df3…b8bebacked Under | 49c | 44.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 50c | 43.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.81 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad22…014abacked Under | 48c | 43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f3…4e79backed Over | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 71 | 54.9%39 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…e82bbacked Over | 50c | 36.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x183b…b6e9backed Under | 57c | 24.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f1…dd82backed Under | 51c | 23.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Under | 58c | 17.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 2.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Main Card)Shara Magomedov won
- Will Michel Pereira win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Shara Magomedov win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.