UFC · resolved market
O/U 1.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcbabbb681d220bab6ab04824f90bd045723dff54a3cb31a7efeeaefbc3782e9f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $108,433
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $108,255
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $108,433 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 73c | 75,000$54,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,249.98 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777d…5143backed Under | 27c | 41,849$11,299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,299.21 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10a6…4d8bbacked Under | 30c | 16,888$5,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,007.56 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf438…9559backed Over | 72c | 13,602$9,794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,808.61 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 28c | 12,943$3,622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,622.28 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 71c | 9,030$6,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,649.99 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x531b…32b6backed Under | 27c | 7,630$2,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,060 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c5…6930backed Under | 27c | 6,900$1,863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,863 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…3e7abacked Under | 27c | 3,550$959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$958.5 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 27c | 2,754$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743.06 | 202 | 48.5%98 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Under | 29c | 882.46$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258 | 261 | 40.6%106 W · 155 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed Under | 27c | 740.74$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2a…4fd0backed Under | 27c | 704$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…6850backed Under | 27c | 555.56$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x700b…8d0bbacked Over | 74c | 537.24$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.54 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -34%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e0…708fbacked Under | 28c | 415$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Under | 27c | 400$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Under | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6727…231dbacked Under | 27c | 325.74$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed Under | 25c | 299.92$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.98 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Under | 27c | 293$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.11 | 78 | 59%46 W · 32 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Over | 73c | 220$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 87 | 59.8%52 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 27c | 198.94$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.68 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e3…c760backed Under | 27c | 196.3$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 28c | 182.25$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.03 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6041…3326backed Under | 27c | 144.7$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x336a…1915backed Under | 27c | 141.56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…9748backed Over | 72c | 139.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.03 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 28c | 137.36$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.46 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe246…dedcbacked Under | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x59d7…f69dbacked Under | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e46…42dfbacked Over | 74c | 107.41$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.44 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d38…6f08backed Under | 26c | 99.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x829a…a748backed Under | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…642cbacked Under | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee9…8e38backed Over | 75c | 64.58$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.26 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 25c | 56.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a02…340dbacked Under | 30c | 50.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7465…caa8backed Over | 71c | 42.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 181 | 60.8%110 W · 71 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…29e6backed Under | 28c | 40.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 26c | 39.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 209 | 52.6%110 W · 99 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 29c | 37.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 242 | 56.2%136 W · 106 L | +20.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8726…0f36backed Over | 70c | 34.93$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9162…76e5backed Over | 72c | 33.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92ed…21dcbacked Over | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1110…ea61backed Over | 72c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Over | 74c | 17.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…ca45backed Over | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 1.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Main Card)Shara Magomedov won
- Will Michel Pereira win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Shara Magomedov win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.