UFC · resolved market
Will Shara Magomedov win by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2f1f817501b374a554ee3a0f50882a20cc8a57c1e374cf57300c75dd40b083c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,645
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,759
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,645 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf799…3040backed Yes | 49c | 2,530$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -59%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 53c | 2,411$1,276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,135.22 | 223 | 48.4%108 W · 115 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed No | 51c | 2,286$1,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,119.02 | 117 | 61.5%72 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc233…0561backed Yes | 47c | 2,127$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 42cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdac1…baddbacked No | 51c | 1,400$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.99 | 159 | 60.4%96 W · 63 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 52c | 705.15$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.69 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f86…4fa9backed Yes | 47c | 426.6$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 145 | 60%87 W · 58 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 52c | 381.34$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.43 | 381 | 53.5%204 W · 177 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6401…f240backed No | 58c | 353$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa995…3d50backed Yes | 49c | 304.16$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8777…9b72backed Yes | 50c | 294.18$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.59 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x921e…1e09backed Yes | 48c | 259.79$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.31 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd91e…a433backed Yes | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -4.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed No | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 107 | 54.2%58 W · 49 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ce…f646backed Yes | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Yes | 38c | 174.22$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.77 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c2…8915backed Yes | 50c | 138.57$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.92 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7737…6042backed No | 60c | 116.67$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43dc…37f1backed Yes | 50c | 90$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce4c…d7efbacked Yes | 45c | 88.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.63 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ae…1557backed Yes | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x398d…b8d6backed Yes | 53c | 58.49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe27c…79e0backed Yes | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…6e0abacked Yes | 48c | 52.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a02…340dbacked Yes | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5f…93b7backed Yes | 49c | 43.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x249a…f923backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd18…4280backed Yes | 51c | 39.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 51c | 31.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 206 | 52.9%109 W · 97 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda79…daecbacked Yes | 49c | 29.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 184 | 40.8%75 W · 109 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf011…515bbacked Yes | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 55c | 22.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Shara Magomedov win by KO or TKO?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Main Card)Shara Magomedov won
- Will Michel Pereira win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.