UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47e63ae48b49ba74372a9073c34880e7ff1f2aae250a5c54e5a706a5dab1d764
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,781
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,292
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,781 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 45c | 19,395$8,739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,655.97 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed No | 55c | 14,673$8,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,062.82 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a22…7b00backed No | 56c | 2,679$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Yes | 43c | 1,845$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,054.99 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5108…29cbbacked No | 55c | 1,647$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…e23abacked No | 64c | 1,500$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Yes | 36c | 1,450$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$928 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…cdc9backed Yes | 46c | 1,135$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.01 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53ad…5bd4backed No | 54c | 1,118$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.28 | 208 | 37%77 W · 131 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 54c | 611$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.14 | 356 | 48.6%173 W · 183 L | +16.8wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e0…2c70backed No | 3c | 435$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 53c | 390.38$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.05 | 381 | 53.5%204 W · 177 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x569c…140dbacked No | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5e…0381backed No | 56c | 232.14$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20dd…f6acbacked Yes | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 318 | 55%175 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed No | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 107 | 54.2%58 W · 49 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31c1…7047backed No | 56c | 178.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Yes | 47c | 176.08$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.78 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfd9…9f22backed No | 61c | 115.56$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.33 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3080…f041backed No | 56c | 108.93$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa8…ea63backed Yes | 45c | 101.92$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.66 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ec83backed No | 56c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 223 | 42.2%94 W · 129 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Yes | 39c | 98.86$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.3 | 117 | 49.6%58 W · 59 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd91e…a433backed No | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -4.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 25c | 88.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 223 | 48.4%108 W · 115 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5555…82c5backed No | 56c | 88.34$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9454…14e5backed No | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92e3…eb51backed No | 56c | 86.2$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.27 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cb…48efbacked No | 54c | 73.42$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +25%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked No | 16c | 63.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 223 | 34.1%76 W · 147 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7465…caa8backed Yes | 53c | 56.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 181 | 60.8%110 W · 71 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa1…a420backed No | 57c | 56.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 50c | 47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 87 | 59.8%52 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2814…b0ccbacked No | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 53c | 36.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 136 | 36.8%50 W · 86 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x967d…1b87backed Yes | 60c | 31.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…1fafbacked No | 55c | 29.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeed0…545bbacked No | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0a…643abacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Main Card)Shara Magomedov won
- Will Michel Pereira win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Shara Magomedov win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.