MLB · resolved market
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19e3f79df301daf4b0e241ec8d1bf653946740d770088c32bae675ef052676c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof Tampa Bay Rays, Toronto Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,681
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,667
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,681 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 59c | 15,318$9,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,280.24 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 41c | 9,102$3,732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,732 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd76b…e9d5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 44c | 3,328$1,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,464 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Tampa Bay Rays | 41c | 2,959$1,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,213 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 57c | 2,017$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$877.33 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 1,156$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.49 | 252 | 48.8%123 W · 129 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Toronto Blue Jays | 56c | 1,132$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.09 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Tampa Bay Rays | 41c | 693.1$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.17 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 41c | 517$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.97 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Toronto Blue Jays | 76c | 398$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.52 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Tampa Bay Rays | 21c | 293.22$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.9 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 41c | 273$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.93 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Tampa Bay Rays | 16c | 260.34$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.77 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cf…0e95backed Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 220$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.4 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 185$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.7 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 13c | 182$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 70c | 168$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Tampa Bay Rays | 24c | 150.12$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.53 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 33c | 149.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.03 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Toronto Blue Jays | 58c | 144$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.48 | 303 | 40.6%123 W · 180 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Tampa Bay Rays | 41c | 134.16$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 587 | 46%270 W · 317 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…e82bbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3450…cee8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 59c | 34.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Tampa Bay Rays | 41c | 28.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc020…5edbbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 59c | 23.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 229 | 54.6%125 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Toronto Blue Jays | 66c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed Toronto Blue Jays | 69c | 15.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 250 | 53.2%133 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay RaysToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay RaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.