MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c78ef3bc60a6dbc0cdf32cac2ceafda26644e4e6ed44a5cff29e7694dd97402
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,529
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,665
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,529 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 31c | 6,724$2,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,054.95 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 70c | 6,118$4,274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,844 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 69c | 2,166$1,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.06 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 29c | 910.15$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.44 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 31c | 787.77$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.27 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Under | 70c | 607.33$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.22 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 41c | 463.41$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 52c | 403.01$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.44 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Over | 48c | 393.01$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.64 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 30c | 383.99$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.44 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 28c | 320$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.8 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 28c | 291.97$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.75 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 71c | 285.71$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.41 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 59c | 267.92$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.85 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 28c | 160.54$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.95 | 474 | 46.6%221 W · 253 L | +26.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef78…0b70backed Under | 75c | 143.33$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.33 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Under | 70c | 142.86$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.15 | 406 | 58.4%237 W · 169 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Under | 71c | 142.86$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.71 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 59c | 135$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.15 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 66c | 131.44$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.23 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 31c | 111.07$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.73 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Under | 66c | 103.64$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.01 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 28c | 92.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 60c | 85.59$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.88 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcf…04fcbacked Under | 76c | 80$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Under | 70c | 78$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 43c | 66.62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06fd…2688backed Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Under | 68c | 48.01$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 176 | 47.2%83 W · 93 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5c…e316backed Over | 44c | 46.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 132 | 40.2%53 W · 79 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Over | 41c | 40.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 32c | 39.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 44c | 38.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…00d5backed Over | 34c | 34.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked Under | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 285 | 53%151 W · 134 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 36c | 33.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb092…48d5backed Under | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 39c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 69c | 25.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…f8bdbacked Under | 78c | 22.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 56c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41c8…424fbacked Under | 70c | 15.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 203 | 62.6%127 W · 76 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay RaysToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay RaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.