MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19e5075448d5d66e9b1b631f78343ca8a806f55f91c4dbcfa5d045d4b8fbd668
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,071
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,089
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,071 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa77…15a5backed Under | 54c | 9,248$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 232 | 55.6%129 W · 103 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 47c | 3,054$1,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,628.88 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 46c | 1,996$918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,077.77 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Over | 45c | 1,952$878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,073.53 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Over | 46c | 965.15$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.18 | 167 | 46.7%78 W · 89 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 46c | 500$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Over | 47c | 500$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 45c | 311$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.05 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 45c | 259.25$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.59 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 45c | 150$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 47c | 55.32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.57 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3622…083dbacked Over | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 50c | 41.37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 50c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-4.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-5.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco GiantsToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 11.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 12.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco GiantsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.