MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ef2e15f7f2738aacd5d8f191b82137610563ffb4cb086b617bf3640523b7429
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,034
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,078
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,034 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d13…643cbacked Over | 57c | 12,500$7,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,375 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a2…14b8backed Over | 58c | 5,555$3,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,333.1 | 182 | 41.2%75 W · 107 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 57c | 5,000$2,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,150 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca1…ddcdbacked Under | 44c | 4,665$2,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,041.14 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 43c | 4,469$1,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,900.24 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbd…d6f0backed Under | 43c | 3,889$1,672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,672.27 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 43c | 3,152$1,354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,353.74 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 43c | 2,299$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988.42 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 60c | 1,830$1,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,096.17 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 42c | 1,299$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$756.31 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 43c | 1,102$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.52 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70dc…1dfdbacked Over | 54c | 1,043$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.68 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | -17.3wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…aa44backed Under | 43c | 1,021$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.81 | 515 | 45.2%233 W · 282 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7be0…ca40backed Under | 44c | 816.71$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.16 | 87 | 75.9%66 W · 21 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84a3…44dcbacked Under | 44c | 708.75$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.85 | 103 | 44.7%46 W · 57 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 43c | 390$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.7 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Under | 43c | 348.84$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 71c | 318.96$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.52 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19ae…395cbacked Under | 42c | 264.46$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 52c | 242.45$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.73 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 43c | 229.24$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.59 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 43c | 228$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.04 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 34c | 216.11$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.47 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…3824backed Under | 48c | 206.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 44c | 201.56$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.7 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 43c | 197.62$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.98 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Under | 42c | 188.78$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.29 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Under | 43c | 188$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.51 | 880 | 46.4%408 W · 472 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d50…e29fbacked Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9678…594bbacked Over | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 42c | 160$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under | 42c | 146.17$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.39 | 295 | 47.1%139 W · 156 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Under | 43c | 137.21$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fff…5495backed Over | 58c | 118.97$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.97 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +7.3wins | +0.20per pick | 56cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb9…40d7backed Over | 57c | 114.04$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.04 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Under | 46c | 102.54$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.17 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Under | 44c | 99.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 541 | 46.8%253 W · 288 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb1…8436backed Under | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 276 | 44.9%124 W · 152 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Under | 44c | 89$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.16 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 45c | 86.33$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.84 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99eb…e4c1backed Over | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…1badbacked Under | 61c | 81.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 156 | 39.1%61 W · 95 L | -11.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Over | 58c | 78$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 539 | 50.6%273 W · 266 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 45c | 73.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee7…fb13backed Over | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 39c | 68$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.34 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…0306backed Under | 25c | 67.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 43c | 66.17$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 44c | 63.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…ec9abacked Over | 47c | 61.14$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.57 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e50…4b22backed Under | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x786f…1dcdbacked Over | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 37c | 59.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Under | 44c | 48.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Over | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 170 | 47.1%80 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Over | 49c | 40.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 1,203 | 48.5%584 W · 619 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Under | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…84f7backed Under | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed Over | 56c | 37.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 424 | 48.1%204 W · 220 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 65c | 37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bef…5f5dbacked Under | 45c | 36.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 73c | 33.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x471b…0f1abacked Under | 45c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Under | 42c | 26.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 55c | 23.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 57c | 20.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Over | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 557 | 58%323 W · 234 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 75c | 15.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5this page
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-4.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-5.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco GiantsToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 11.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 12.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco GiantsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.