MLB · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe053c0b3c81316afd8944ac4806fc31b107b202d54725966d9d02dcaf51edaf4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof Toronto Blue Jays, San Francisco Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,609
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,594
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,609 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 40c | 4,758$1,903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,854.79 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc8…2f68backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 2,490$1,491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,490.95 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb85…152fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 41c | 2,477$1,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,461.36 | 172 | 48.3%83 W · 89 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Toronto Blue Jays | 40c | 2,251$898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,353.07 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked San Francisco Giants | 59c | 1,950$1,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150.5 | 1,922 | 53.4%1,027 W · 895 L | +28.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 1,834$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,125.56 | 1,884 | 53%998 W · 886 L | +16.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 1,681$1,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,013.87 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked San Francisco Giants | 59c | 1,507$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$889.9 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked San Francisco Giants | 60c | 1,300$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 460 | 48.5%223 W · 237 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed San Francisco Giants | 62c | 662.99$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.05 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cec…d241backed San Francisco Giants | 61c | 655.74$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62a0…7827backed San Francisco Giants | 62c | 419.35$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 40c | 300$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 42c | 274$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.03 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 963 | 49%472 W · 491 L | -39.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed San Francisco Giants | 58c | 180.01$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.41 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6676…22f3backed San Francisco Giants | 63c | 158.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 529 | 47.4%251 W · 278 L | -24.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…faeabacked San Francisco Giants | 62c | 129.03$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 404 | 49.3%199 W · 205 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed San Francisco Giants | 59c | 99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.41 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 42c | 91$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.78 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Toronto Blue Jays | 42c | 91$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.78 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed San Francisco Giants | 58c | 90$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 1,445 | 50%723 W · 722 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked San Francisco Giants | 35c | 82.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Toronto Blue Jays | 67c | 78$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 67c | 78$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed San Francisco Giants | 61c | 70$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.39 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed San Francisco Giants | 58c | 67.14$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.07 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bef…5f5dbacked San Francisco Giants | 35c | 63.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdef6…d18fbacked San Francisco Giants | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 453 | 48.6%220 W · 233 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed San Francisco Giants | 62c | 34.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…ceafbacked San Francisco Giants | 62c | 31.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 228 | 53.5%122 W · 106 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked San Francisco Giants | 60c | 23.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 21.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed San Francisco Giants | 59c | 17.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-4.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-5.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco GiantsToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 11.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 12.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco GiantsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.