MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c22cd9a5fcf9d6628d787cffbf5443f86ccebe8dd8a8915dd1c575842c4338a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,706
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,751
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,706 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e6e…be00backed Yes | 38c | 6,466$2,484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,982.88 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0df…5974backed No | 62c | 3,228$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 222 | 57.2%127 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x300b…f636backed No | 61c | 2,500$1,525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,525 | 233 | 57.9%135 W · 98 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…f8a3backed No | 62c | 1,673$1,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,035 | 302 | 42.4%128 W · 174 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Yes | 42c | 1,533$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$893.51 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9621…0a73backed No | 61c | 1,226$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 186 | 58.6%109 W · 77 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed No | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 39c | 994$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.34 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea39…9d34backed No | 62c | 780$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.6 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Yes | 37c | 657.38$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.3 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes | 39c | 646.82$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.56 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8e…a316backed Yes | 38c | 500$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 226 | 38.5%87 W · 139 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x463d…3a99backed Yes | 42c | 388.3$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67d3…b524backed No | 61c | 325.4$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa06a…d284backed No | 62c | 303.45$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.14 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 59c | 296$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.64 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 38c | 265.47$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.75 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 59c | 248$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.32 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Yes | 41c | 224.29$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.94 | 340 | 44.4%151 W · 189 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…d72abacked Yes | 51c | 194.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.62 | 158 | 48.1%76 W · 82 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Yes | 37c | 189$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.07 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaea5…26e3backed No | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 194 | 54.6%106 W · 88 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 38c | 149.91$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.95 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed No | 57c | 127$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.39 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee8a…69acbacked No | 60c | 116.67$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 146 | 55.5%81 W · 65 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed Yes | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 292 | 42.5%124 W · 168 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Yes | 39c | 84.61$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.61 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed No | 58c | 77$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.66 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 54c | 75$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.75 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 39c | 66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 65c | 61.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f8…f1a7backed Yes | 41c | 58.05$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7f…bb6dbacked Yes | 42c | 58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.64 | 147 | 51.7%76 W · 71 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0477…631cbacked No | 62c | 56.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 171 | 55.6%95 W · 76 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked No | 49c | 55.02$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Yes | 42c | 51.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18d8…400bbacked Yes | 40c | 48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed No | 60c | 46.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…df57backed No | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Yes | 51c | 39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 267 | 62.2%166 W · 101 L | +43.9wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +58%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 51c | 37.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7884…1fb0backed No | 60c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed No | 59c | 30.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b16…1290backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ee…c9cdbacked No | 59c | 23.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…d888backed No | 60c | 23.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giantsthis page
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-4.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-5.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco GiantsToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 11.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 12.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.